2014 Plumbing Supply Forum Sydney Dr Harley Dale, HIA Chief Economist 27 May 2014

The Global Economy is Marching Back

The Domestic Economic Backdrop – it’s all about housing

Economic growth is slowly picking up …

… unemployment is a key unknown

New housing is the key In 2013 Australia started 168,000 new dwellings, an increase of 11%. HIA’s forecast was for 8% growth to 164,400.

What is going to happen to interest rates?

What does the budget mean for us? There is no denying that this is a ‘tight’ budget, but what does that mean? “There will be some negative impact on economic growth. The budget relies heavily on spending cuts to achieve its targets. Consumer confidence will almost certainly be damaged by this budget.” Harley Dale, 14/5/14 The question is what happens to real activity in 2014/15? There are three keys:- –Residential construction –Business investment –Budget is only part of the process

The latest fiscal battle is only the beginning

What does all this mean for consumer confidence?

The new home building recovery – how far and wide can it run?

What do we make of the new housing recovery?

What lies ahead? The highest number of starts was over 187,000 in Building approvals imply 181,000; 6mth annualised approvals imply 192,000

The changing composition of new housing In 1993 the detached house share was 73%; in 2013 it was 56%. In 2013 the breakdown was …

… much different to how it used to be

What is happening in the renovations market?

Renovations investment – about to turn?

Housing prices suggest the answer is yes

Housing prices are on the rise, but not evenly

More housing stock ‘coming of age’

The scores around the grounds …

NSW – new housing is finally ripping along New housing starts hit nearly 45,000 last year, the highest in a decade. Starts are likely to exceed 50,000 in There are 11 ‘growth’ regions out of 13.

NSW – renovations have been awful Growth of 5 per cent in 2014, 4 per cent in 2015.

Victoria – new housing is down but not out New housing starts fell from over 60,000 in 2010 to 47,000 last year. Starts are likely to hold steady in 2014, but decline further in Land sales suggest a turnaround in most regions.

Victoria – renovations top the nation Activity to ease by around 2 per cent in 2014 and 2015.

Queensland – new housing on the recovery trail New housing starts went back over 30,000 last year. Starts are likely to reach around 38,000 in 2014, the highest level since Regional markets bottoming out or picking up, except Mackay and Rockhampton.

Queensland renovations bottoming out Growth of 5 per cent in 2014, 4 per cent in 2015.

A mixed bag for the remaining states

So what else is there?

The future demand for housing

Now I don’t mean to ‘bug’ you … … but I do get ‘Mad as Hell’ about …

… the lack of housing policy reform

Updates from HIA Economics Annual Housing and Population Hotspots More detailed new housing forecasts Demographic analysis by state Housing to 2025 New Renovations report

Thank you for your time Harley Dale Chief Economist