Global Climate Change Potential Impact on Plant Diseases Waldir Cintra de Jesus Junior (UFES) Francisco Xavier Ribeiro do Vale (UFV)

Global Climate Change & IPM Land Use & Land Cover Climate Change Climate Volatility Bio- geochemistry CO 2 Globalization, Trade & Transport Alien species & GMOs ICT Biotechnology Human Health

Disease Triangle

Comparative Plant Disease Epidemiology Early blight (tomato) Angular and rust leaf spot (Common bean) spot (Common bean) Soybean rust Coffee leaf rust

(Coelho et al., 2001)

(Paul et al., 2001)

Climate change What can plant pathologists offer? Accelerated plant development Less water Lower water use efficiency Thermal stress

(Chakraborty, 2000) Colletotrichum gloeosporioides causing anthracnose of Stylosanthes scabra

Fig. Free-air enrichment (FACE) apparatus using pure CO2 injection in the field. Rice plants were exposed in four paddies to elevated CO2 by growing them within 12-m-diameter rings which sprayed pure CO2 toward the center from peripheral emission tubes located 50 cm above the canopy. In another four paddies, plants were grown under ambient CO2 conditions with no ring structures in place. ( Kobayashi et al., 2006)

Effects of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on the Infection of Rice Sheath Blight (Kobayashi et al., 2006)

Atual2080–A22080–B22050–A2200–B2 Janeiro Julho Janeiro Julho Medium temperature (ºC) for the actual climate and 2080, scenario A2 and B2, obtained from the average of 6 models (CCSR-NIES, CGCM, CSIRO, ECHAM, GFDL and HADCM3).

(Vale et al., 2000)

2050–A2Atual January July 2050–A – B2 Incubation period of coffee leaf rust (days) ( Rayner´s model), to actual and 2050 (scenario A2 and B2) (Hamada et al., 2005)

One Global Change Impacts Toolkit for Pests Site-Manager Organise site- specific information Climate-matching Mechanistic model Novel climates Taxon-based risk assessments Modular mechanistic modelling Quantify adaptation options Integrate multiple taxa The only tool that meets these needs Designed by biologists for biologists (Sutherst, 2006)

Total Cost = $28.5m p.a. Total Cost = $21m Change in EI EI Value +1.0°C +2.0°C Current Regional Vulnerability +1.0°C Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests under Climate Change Current Queensland Fruit FlyLight Brown Apple Moth (Sutherst, 2006)

(Vale, 1992)

Concluding remarks The focus needs to shift from paddock-based assessment on specific diseases to a more ecologically relevant spatial and temporal unit to consider climate with other associated changes in land use and vegetation cover, among other.