Argentina in the Aftermath of International Financial Crisis: Commodity Booms and the New State Capitalism Sylvia Maxfield Simmons College Prepared for.

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Presentation transcript:

Argentina in the Aftermath of International Financial Crisis: Commodity Booms and the New State Capitalism Sylvia Maxfield Simmons College Prepared for a Workshop to Precede the Montreal International Studies Association Meeting, March 15, 2011

Generalizing Across the Region: commodity boom improves external and fiscal balance sheets provides room for counter-cyclical policy transmission mechanism of the crisis is trade not finance You Can’t Have a Credit Crunch if there is No Credit Argentina’s unique situation post-2001 crisis Argentina’s New State Capitalism

Regional growth over the century Gold Stand. InterwarUS Postwar Boom Alliance for Progress ISILost Decade Wash. Cons. Wash. Diss. US & LAC on par LAC & Asian Tigers outpace US LAC & Asian Tigers lag US, with incipient recovery LAC lags; Asian Tigers outpace US Slight LAC increase, Asian Tigers take off LAC slides, Asian Tigers accelerat e Cont.2002 LAC starts to outpace US GDP per capita, LAC and Asia relative to US

Commodity Prices Against 1970s Base OcaOc Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2009, Latin American and the global financial crisis, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33.

Argentine Growth 3 rd Highest in Region,

Commodity boom helped improve external balance sheet positions throughout the region and created space for counter-cyclical macro-economic policy

Argentina’s macro-economic policy response External and government balance sheets aided by pension fund nationalization in Fall 2008 Central bank relaxes monetary targeting rules in 2010 (Fernandez fires Martin Redrado when he refuses to do this – confirmation of his successor required a public advertising campaign to win sufficient congressional support)

Transmission mechanism of the crisis is through trade not finance Data on correlation of export decline and GDP decline

No banking crises in Banking crises in (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay) Banking crises (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru) Supervision & regulatory reform; flexible exchange rates (depreciation the norm); central bank independence and price stability

Argentina: No credit to crunch Data on credit

Impact of crisis on unemployment much lower than in prior recessions Changes in unemployment rate (ILO) Prior recessions: Argentina= ; Brazil= ; Chile= ; Colombia= ; Mexico=

Argentina: the “bad” left or an example of the new state capitalism? Kirschnerismo involves increased state ownership & social spending Central Government Expenditures (% of GDP)

Room for countercyclical policy and state intervention is shrinking Fiscal and current account balances (% of GDP)

Argentine fiscal situation in comparative perspective

Growth prospects for remain strong Real GDP Growth (OECD)