Is a rolling stock programme possible? Roger Ford Industry & Technology Editor: Modern Railways

Feast and famine

A bit of history 1986: Network SouthEast planned to replace Mk1 stock with Networkers at 400 vehicles a year 1990: Recession curbs investment 1992: Privatisation halts train orders 1995: OPRAF decides Mk 1 adequate for first 7 year franchises HMRI does not raise objection

Then what happened? 1997: HMRI realises that Hidden recommendations will not be met 1997: HMRI sponsors development of cup & cone anti-overide modification 1998: First live test of cup & cone 1998: HMRI publishes draft regulations 1999: The Railway Safety Regulations (1999) introduced

Drop dead date Unmodified Mk 1 Stock banned after 31 December 2002 Mk 1 stock modified to prevent or reduce over-riding could remain in service but illegal after 31 December 2004 Slam doors without central locking also banned from 31 December 2004

Big numbers – no gain OperatorMk1 vehicles New vehicles ordered South Eastern496 South Central SWT524 Totals

Rolling stock plan 2008 DfT additional vehicles CP4 OperatorEMUDMU c2c40 One188 First Capital connect256 Chiltern 12 South Western105 South Central106 South Eastern110 Total L&SE80512 London Midland6626 Esat Midlands Trains 3 Northern24158 TransPennine Express 42 Total Regional90229 Intercity West Coast106 Greater Western 52 Cross Country 6 Intercity East Coast Total Intercity10658 Combined total

Quite simple really New vehicles and cascades in the Rolling Stock Plan (extract) As at February 2008 ClassUnitsformationcarsfromto LMc2c LMone (360?)304120NEWone oneFCC GN LMFCC GN LRCFCC GN 377 (DV converted)254100South CentralFCC TL South EasternSouth Central EMU254100NEWSouth Central NEWChiltern South CentralSWT EMU 154NEWSouth Central EMU 110NEWSouth Eastern EMU19357NEWSWT

Rolling stock plan 2008 DfT additional vehicles CP4 OperatorEMUDMU c2c40 One188 First Capital connect256 Chiltern 12 South Western105 South Central106 South Eastern110 Total L&SE80512 London Midland6626 Esat Midlands Trains 3 Northern24158 TransPennine Express 42 Total Regional90229 Intercity West Coast106 Greater Western 52 Cross Country 6 Intercity East Coast Total Intercity10658 Combined total

What really happened Ordered SouthernCl 377 EMU48 London MidlandCl 350/2 EMU148 London MidlandCl 172 DMU69 ChilternCl 172 DMU8 SouthernCl 377 EMU44 Virgin West CoastCl National Express East AngliaCl 379 EMU120 Vehicles ordered 543 Outstanding London MidlandCl Manchester Scotland FranchiseCl 350/2 EMU40 Thameslink 120 Total 743

Prospects for Firm orders Intercity Express Programme (GWML)800/801EMU369HitachiOrdered Intercity Express Programme (ECML)800/801EMU497HitachiOrdered (2) Thameslink EMU1140SiemensOrdered Southern (3)387EMU116Bombardierordered Southern387EMU140Bombardieroption LOROL (4)378EMU57Bombardierordered Orders pending Provisional Crossrail EMU600 Tendering (5) SWT (HLOS build) EMU150 Tendering Known requirements Merseyrail EMU175 Pending OJEU Scotrail (EGIP) (6) EMUup to 400 Pre-emptive OJEUs Great Western EMU DA Franchise requirement LOROL (7) EMU120 Various Cancelled Intercity West Coast (First) (8) EMU66Alstom/CAFCancelled Intercity West Coast (Virgin) (8) 390EMU126AlstomCancelled Cross Countrye-220DEMU BombardierAbandoned

Prospects DMUs – life extension for PRM-TSI post 2020 and cascade EMUs – existing fleet re-engineering and life extension for PRM-TSI post EMUs – New build perhaps 1,000 vehicles on top of mega-contracts