Seasonal Assessment Training Household Economy Analysis: The Analytical Framework Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU) Early Warning & Response Department Disaster Management & Food Security Sector Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

In relation to seasonal assessments, the objective of HEA is to investigate the effects of hazards on future access to food and income at household level HEA Framework: Overview GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

The framework involves putting together two types of information: Livelihood Baseline Data (The context) Monitoring Data (The changes) + On-going Analysis of Current and Projected Situation and Intervention Needs (The outcome) HEA Framework: Overview GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Coping step example: 1 household member migrates for labour Outcome = Baseline + Hazard + Coping (a simple example) Hazard example: 50% crop failure The baseline picture Effect on access to crops Final result HEA Framework: Overview GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

HEA starts with an understanding of how households normally live…. A more detailed example…. HEA Framework: Overview GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

…then it incorporates the impact of a shock…. A more detailed example…. HEA Framework: Overview GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Survival Threshold Livelihoods Protection Threshold Gap …and finally looks at how people might be able to cope. The analysis suggests that post- shock, households will not be able to maintain their normal livelihood assets without assistance. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

BASELINE In sum…. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

BASELINE HAZARD + In sum…. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

BASELINE HAZARD + COPING + In sum…. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

BASELINE HAZARD + COPING OUTCOME + = In sum…. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

BASELINE HAZARD + COPING OUTCOME + = HEA Framework Overview: Components In practice this process is broken into six steps GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 1: Livelihood Zoning Why it is necessary: Allows you to target geographically & to customize indicators for livelihoods monitoring systems Enderta Dry Midland Zone Production: Rainfed mixed agriculture Agro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland) Main Consumption: Wheat, Teff, Sorghum, Main cash crops: Barley, Wheat, Sorghum, Main livestock: Sheep, Cattle, Poultry Market access: good Other economic activities: Salt trade, animal sales, Hazards: Drought every 3 years, weeds every year Response of poor: Labour sales, firewood sales, migration West Central Teff Zone Production: Rainfed mixed agriculture Agro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland) Main Consumption: Teff, Barley, Wheat, Pulses Major Cash Crops: Teff, Wheat, Pulses Main livestock: Cattle, goat, sheep Market Access: Good Hazard: Drought every 3 years, pests every 3 years, hailstorms annually Response of poor: Labour sales, reduce meals (frequency ) What it does: Defines areas within which people share broadly the same patterns of livelihood GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 2: Wealth Breakdown What it does: Groups people together using local definitions of wealth and quantifies their livelihood assets Why it is necessary: Allows you to disaggregate the population and indicate who (and how many) need assistance Gesho & Wheat Highland Zone GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 3: Baseline food, income and expenditure quantification What it does: Quantifies sources of food and income, and expenditure patterns for a baseline year in Tigray Why it is necessary: Enables comparisons across wealth groups, zones and countries & provides starting point for outcome analysis Central Mixed Crop Livelihood Zone Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 4: What it does: Translates a hazard into economic consequences at household level Why it is necessary: Allows you to mathematically link the shock to each relevant livelihood strategy OUTCOME ANALYSIS Compiled from data collected during seasonal assessments or monitoring GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 5:What it does: Assesses the ability of households to respond to the hazard Why it is necessary: Determines the amount of external assistance required & Highlights monitoring indicators for testing prediction OUTCOME ANALYSIS Data collected during baseline GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 6: What it does: Predicts the outcome of the hazard in relation to livelihood protection and survival thresholds Why it is necessary: Allows you to determine whether people need external assistance in order to survive and/or to maintain their livelihood assets OUTCOME ANALYSIS The figure compares three different situations, of progressively greater severity and urgency. GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

The Survival Threshold is the total income required to cover: A)100% of minimum food energy needs (2100 kcals per person per day), B) the costs associated with food preparation and consumption (i.e. salt, soap kerosene and/or firewood for cooking and basic lighting), C)any expenditure on water for human consumption  This is the line below which intervention is required to save lives. The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the total income required to sustain local livelihoods. This means total expenditure to: A) ensure basic survival (see above), B)maintain access to basic services (e.g. routine medical and schooling expenses), C) plus sustain livelihoods in the medium to longer term (e.g. regular purchase of seeds, inputs vet drugs); D) locally acceptable standard of living (e.g. coffee, pepper, etc)  This is the line below which an intervention is required to maintain existing livelihood assets GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD