Joint House Committee Hearing on Land & Resource Management and Urban Affairs October 15, 2014 Austin, Texas Population Growth of Texas Cities and Its Impact

Overview Texas is experiencing rapid population growth. This growth is not geographically evenly distributed. This growth is not evenly distributed across race/ethnic groups. Texas has a significant aging population. Amidst rapid growth, parts of Texas are experiencing natural decline. There is great geographic variation in demands for services and on infrastructure. The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups and are less represented in higher skilled occupations. A well-educated labor force can bolster a diverse economy, making it more resilient to economic downturns. 2

Y ear* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent Change 19507,711, ,579,6771,868, ,196,7301,617, ,229,1913,032, ,986,5102,757, ,851,8203,865, ,145,5614,293, ,060, , ,448,193387, * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

One third of U.S. cities in the top 20 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012 to U.S. RankGeographyPopulation Estimate Houston, Texas 2,160,7122,195,914 7San Antonio, Texas 1,383,6411,409,019 9Dallas, Texas 1,241,7001,257,676 11Austin, Texas 864,407885,400 17Fort Worth, Texas 778,084792,727 19El Paso, Texas 674,124674,433

One-third of the top 40 fastest growing cities in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates – Places of 50,000+ Population U.S. Rank GeographyPopulation EstimateChange, 2012 to NumberPercent 1San Marcos, TX50,09254,0763, Frisco, TX128,463136,7918, Cedar Park, TX57,96561,2383, Georgetown, TX52,53354,8982, Odessa, TX106,500110,7204, McKinney, TX143,032148,5595, Pearland, TX96,374100,0653, New Braunfels, TX61,00663,2792, Midland, TX119,665123,9334, Pflugerville, TX51,93653,7521, League City, TX88,28690,9832, North Richland Hills, TX65,32767,3171, Round Rock, TX106,710109,8213,1112.9

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 Population Estimates

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 99 counties lost population over the three year period

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

12 Estimated Percent of Housing Units Occupied, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Percent of housing units built in 2010 or later, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Median housing unit value, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Mean travel time to work, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Projected Population Growth in Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 21 These should be going DOWNThese should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 22 These should be going DOWNThese should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

23 Office of the State Demographer Phone: (512) or (210) Web: