Www.lcra.org Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA.

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Presentation transcript:

Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA

Rainfall Since October 1st

Rainfall Since October 1st Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77

Rainfall Departure From Normal Since Oct.1

Rainfall So Far in June

While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain

One of the Worst Droughts on Record 3 rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record. Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.

Soil Moisture Anomaly

An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer

Latest Drought Monitor

Latest Drought Monitor

Comparison with Worst of 2009 Drought September 1, 2009

La Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral. June 13th

Trending Back to La Nia? Trending Back to La Niña? El Nino La Nina

NWS July through September Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation

Drought Outlook through September

WetDry

Composite Precipitation June through August

Composite Precipitation September through October

NAEFS Forecast through July 1st Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain

Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

National Hurricane Center Outlook

Colorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook “We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June, 1st Update 16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6) 9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9) 5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)

Years with Similar Conditions 1971, 2008

1971

2008

2011 Hurricane Season Names

Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA

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