Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist.

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Presentation transcript:

Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist

Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)

Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas

2011 Texas Weather Statistics inches. Driest calendar year on record! Previous record was inches in Average Temperature 67.2 degrees. Second hottest year on record. Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in 1921.

2011 Weather Records Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Victoria had their driest years on record. Austin, College Station, Midland, San Angelo and Brownsville had their hottest years on record

Rainfall Since Oct. 1st

Departure from Normal Since 10/1

Unusual December Jet Stream Pattern

Current Jet Stream

Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña

October 4, 2011 Drought Monitor Comparison

Now In the Second Year of La Niña January 6, 2011 January 23, 2012

La Nina

WetDry

Temperature Precipitation

NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook

Drought Outlook through April

Rain Needed to End the Drought in 3 Months

Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State Tropical Storm Outlook for 2012 THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance. (14-17 Storms) THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)

Take Home Points No clear end in sight to the ongoing drought; it could last well into Conditions could easily get worse before seeing any improvement. Scattered rains will continue winter into early spring but not heavy enough to significantly change the drought. Intense droughts are hard to break. Some models trending toward El Nino this fall.

Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA