Ethanol & Innovation Investment Overview

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Presentation transcript:

Ethanol & Innovation Investment Overview Tyler J. Krutzfeldt, CFA Managing Director Mont Vista Capital June 25, 2012 EPAC Meeting Billings, MT

What we will discuss Energy Market Overview Biorefinery 2.0, 3.0 Our Focus Conclusion

Who we are A specialized merchant banking team focusing on clean energy, water, and infrastructure opportunities with a sustainable investment strategy. T. Krutzfeldt founding Board member of Algae Biomass Org, speaker at FEW, Platts Biofuel Financing, and published Billings Gazette, Ethanol Producer.

Chindia

China’s appetite

Fuel Switch

Fuel Switch

Fuel Switch

Crude to Nat Gas

Fuel Switch

Power Cost – full carbon

Power costs – low carbon

Gas – bearish, mid-term 2011, the US accounted for half of natural gas supply increase, globally Because of new supply, natural gas prices have dropped 85% since 2008 Fracking and coal economics Peak oil doesn’t mean we’re running out of oil. It means we have to spend more to get the remaining oil …bearish for gas

A Biorefinery Fuel molecule is lower % gross revenue than non-fuel co-products Revenue diversification via food, chemical, and premium* drop-in fuels Premium* = D5 RINS Capital markets keen on biochemicals & biomaterials displacing under current specs Biochemical supply constrained

Biorefinery Pathways Ethanol + biogas fuel switch

Biorefinery Pathways Ethanol + algae Addressable Markets Co2 Nutrients Pharma Fertilizer Chemicals/Fuels

Other Pathways Cellulosic Fractionation to Clean Sugars (Biorefinery) Supply chain/capex/cap markets uncertainty Fractionation to Clean Sugars (Biorefinery) $0.12 - $0.15 per pound dextrose @ $6/bushel sorghum Compelling for downstream product pathways CCS/EOR Significant uncertainty

Our Focus 6-8 key clean energy/clean water businesses, not technologies alone Problem solvers, not seekers Substitutes in existing supply chains Lifecycle GHG targets assist in defining strategy over investment horizon. Projects not ideas Series of little bets

Conclusion opening gates…

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