ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview, Brussels, 25 Sept New Outlook on seismic faults: From EARthquake nucleation to arrest (acronym: NOFEAR) Giulio Di Toro Principal Investigator: Hosting Institution: Padua University Italy 1222

ERC StG project USEMS ( ): Study of physico-chemical processes during the seismic cycle. USEMS showed “…outstanding publication record…recommended for follow up actions” (ERC scientific panel evaluation). Two promotional videos for ERC. ISI Web of Knowledge 1023 citations 17 HI Activities related to Associate Prof. in Structural Geology at Padua University, Italy 58 peer-reviewed papers 4 Nature & Science papers as 1 st author 2008 EGU Arne Richter Award in Geophysics 2010 Accademia dei Lincei Award in Geology 2013 Member of the Academy of Europe Tutored 25 Post-Doc, PhD, MS & BS: 5 won International Awards. Citations in Each Year

Outline of the NOFEAR project 1. Motivation 2. Methodology 3. Anticipated results

Earthquakes (EQs, red) and landslides (blue) threaten our continent. ethz.ch/hazard/risk /flyers/Mediterrane an.html 1.Motivation

Friction, fracture and geometry are the keys to understand the physics of EQs (and landslides*). Destructive EQs nucleate at 7-25 km depth so are investigated remotely via seismology. * addressed in NOFEAR, not in this interview because of time limitations.

This “indirect” approach (seismograms, GPS, etc.) allows limited understanding of EQ physics. Earthquake forecasting models (probability that a mainshock may occur in terms of hypocentre location, magnitude and time) call for a sound physical basis. BUT

The “direct” approach of NOFEAR unifies and theoretical studies to enhance our knowledge of earthquake physics, from rupture nucleation to arrest. NOFEAR main by-product will be the systematic investigation of EQ (and landslides) precursors (seismic, physical, chemical and electromagnetic). Field = fault geometry Lab = friction and rupture laws 200 m 2 cm

To achieve these goals, NOFEAR exploits the most powerful and versatile EQ simulator installed worldwide: SHIVA = Slow to High Velocity Apparatus... Di Toro et al., Rend. Lin., 2010; Niemeijer et al., JGR 2011; Violay et al., EPSL 2013; Smith et al., Geology, 2013: Fondriest et al., Geology, 2013… 1 m

…and the expertise of the Team I built thanks to USEMS, plus the resources at the Geosciences Dept.* in Padua and at INGV* in Rome. *Best Italian Earth Sciences Academic & Research Centers according to the 2013 evaluation of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research. Geosciences Dept. INGV USEMS research team in 2010

2. Methodology a) Experiments to determine friction and rupture laws… Di Toro et al, Nature, 2004; 2011; Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Nielsen et al., GJI, 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm… ROCK ANALOGUE RUPTURE EXPERIMENTS: UNIAXIAL PRESS REAL ROCKS FRICTION EXPERIMENTS: SHIVA FRICTION LAW 20 mm 20 cm

and to investigate precursory events (AEs, physical, chemical, etc.) to main frictional instabilities (EQ nucleation). Slip (m) Di Toro et al., 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm.; Scarlato et al., 2013; Tisato & Quintal, GJI, 2013 PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE Shear stress (MPa) 50 mm Experimental fault Acoustic emissions, gas emission, attenuation and elastic moduli, etc. Slip rate (mm/s)

b) Field studies to quantify the geometry of natural faults (natural faults are not as small and smooth as experimental faults). Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Bistacchi et al., PAGEOPH, 2011; Fondriest et al., JSG, 2012; Smith et al., Tectonophysics, 2013 Generation of synthetic fault surfaces to use in EQ modeling REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) REMOTE SENSING (LIDAR) 200 m SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE

100 m Wavy fault surface from field studies Di Toro et al., Nature 2005; Griffith et al., JGR 2010; Marzocchi et al., JGR, 2009 c) Numerical models calibrated by field, experimental and theoretical data to produce physically-based EQ simulations (& use in EQ probabilistic forecasting studies). Synthetic seismograms from modeling FERMI Friction law from exp.

FRICTION & PRECURSORS: SHIVA EARTHQUAKE SIMULATIONS 3D VIRTUAL OUTCROP MODELING: EQ SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS: FRICTION & RUPTURE 500 m PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE FRICTION AND PRECURSORY SLIP FIELD: FAULT GEOMETRY ACOUSTIC EMIS. REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) FIELD SURVEY &STEREOPHOTOS SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS FERMI SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE RUPT. DYNA MICS EXP. MODELS RUPTURE: UNIAXIAL PRESS

3. Anticipated results of NOFEAR the physics of earthquakes (and landslides). seismic, chemical, physical and electromagnetic EQ main shock precursors. Technological Development of modules to measure physical and chemical properties of materials over a wide range of temperatures and deformation conditions. Scientific Understanding of:

17 researchers coordinated by the PI: 3 Post-docs, one PhD and 13 scholars. A similar number of Team Members was involved in the previous ERC StG project USEMS: a) Experiments: SHIVA + rupture experiments Giovanni Romeo, Fabio Di Felice, Piergiorgio Scarlato, Adriano Nardi (INGV, Rome), Stefan Nielsen (Durham Univ., UK) + 1 Post-doc (= Elena Spagnuolo), 1 Ph.D. (Padua University) and Alexandre Schubnel (ENS, Paris), Nicola Tisato (ETH, Zurich). b) Field studies: Andrea Bistacchi (Milano Bicocca Univ. I) Steven Smith, (Otago Univ., NZL), Matteo Massironi + 1 Post-Doc (Padua Univ.). c) Numerical Models: Warner Marzocchi (INGV, Rome), Manuele Faccenda (Padua Univ.), 1 Post- doc (Padua Univ.) and Ioan Ionescu (Université Paris). Team Members of the NOFEAR project

Cost CategoryMonth 1-18Month 19-36Month 37-54Month Total (M1-60) Padua University Direct Costs: Personnel: PI Senior Staff Post docs Students (PhD) Other 0 Total Personnel: Other Direct Costs: Equipment (cameras, etc.) Consumables (analysis) Travel (and field work) Publications, etc Other + visitors Total Other Direct Costs: Total Direct Costs: Indirect Costs (overheads): Max 20% of Direct Costs Subcontracting Costs: (No overheads) NOFEAR: budget Padua University

Cost CategoryMonth 1-18Month 19-36Month 37-54Month Total (M1-60) INGV Rome Direct Costs: Personnel: PI 0 Senior Staff Post docs Students00000 Other 0 Total Personnel: Other Direct Costs: Equipment (drone, Aes, etc.) Consumables (SHIVA, etc.) Travels Publications, etc Other + visitors Total Other Direct Costs: Total Direct Costs: Indirect Costs (overheads): Max 20% of Direct Costs Subcontracting Costs: (Furnace,physical properites module, etc.) Total Costs of project: Padua Univ (by reporting period and total) Total Costs of project: INGV by reporting period and total) Total costs of project UNIPD + INGV (by reporting period and total) NOFEAR: budget INGV & total