kpmg State Library of Victoria Public Libraries Seminar The Big Shift – business implications of demographic & cultural change for Melbourne Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003

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The push from the bush Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

kpmg 1. Gold Coast14, Casey10, Brisbane South West7, Melton5, Brisbane North West5, Wyndham5, Blacktown5, Pine Rivers5, Baulkham Hills4, Brisbane South East4, Melbourne3, South Sydney2,824 “We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun”

kpmg Why population shifts are important to business 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg: 3,700 new suburban households, or 6,700 new inner-city households $70 million in new retail spending* $25 million in new supermarket spending* ½ a Kmart One cinema screen 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete Population loss reverse these markets *includes GST

kpmg Growth hotspots in Melbourne Outside top 10 Hume (4,367) Greater Geelong (3,686) Brimbank (3,371) Mornington Peninsula (3,368) Melbourne (3,283) Whittlesea (2,766) Seachange impact on Bellarine & Mornington Peninsulas

kpmg Segment hotspots across Melbourne Boomers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn Xers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn Lone persons to CBD, Port Melbourne & Knox North Never married men (25-34) to Whittlesea South, Yarra Ranges South West & Keilor Never married women (25-34) to St Kilda, Richmond & Knox North

kpmg Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach Broome Narooma Victor Harbour Denmark Augusta- Margaret River Geraldton Busselton Nowra-Bomaderry Port Stephens Port Macquarie Coffs Harbour Gold Coast Caloundra Noosa Hervey Bay Yeppoon Whitsunday Townsville Cairns Port Douglas Sorell Palmerston Leonora Macedon Ranges Losers Winners

kpmg Victorian cities are no longer the losers they once were -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Busselton Mandurah Sunshine Gold Coast Hervey Bay Port Macquarie Townsville Mt Barker Brisbane Nowra-Bomaderry Great Lakes (Forster) Coffs Harbour Eurobodalla (Narooma) Mildura Ballina Livingstone (Yeppoon) Shepparton Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Toowoomba Warrnambool Bunbury Mackay Bendigo Melbourne Bega Valley Bundaberg Ballarat Perth Gladstone Albury-Wodonga Geelong Cairns Singleton Byron Bay Sydney Bathurst Canberra-Queanbeyan Newcastle Wollongong Taree (Greater) Kempsey Rockhampton Orange Wagga Albany Launceston Adelaide Burdekin (Ayr) Maryborough Griffith Tamworth Darwin Dubbo Hobart Nambucca Heads Lithgow (Greater) Armidale Johnstone (Innisfail) Mount Gambier Lismore Latrobe ValleyBurnie-Devonport Geraldton Kalgoorlie-Boulder Grafton Alice Springs Broken Hill Whyalla Mount IsaGoulburn The real action outside Melbourne is focussed on lifestyle towns: Echuca, Torquay, Daylesford, Mansfield and the coast within a 90 minute drive of the CBD

kpmg GrowingDeclining Phoenix+950Baltimore-85 Los Angeles+1,467Philadelphia-68 Houston+582Pittsburgh-55 Fort Lauderdale+368Detroit-50 Dallas+366St Louis-48 LA Phoenix Dallas Houston Fort Lauderdale St Louis Detroit Pittsburgh Philadelphia Baltimore

kpmg Inter-city commuting on the rise … Australians pursue lifestyle options 2001 Change since 96 1.Sydney – Wollongong18,23919% 2.Brisbane – Gold Coast15,19523% 3.Sydney – Newcastle11,5191% 4.Melbourne – Geelong10,14618% 5.Perth – Mandurah5,65618% 6.Brisbane – Sunshine Coast4,53114%

kpmg Chic-house city living Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutique beer bottles with a designer label Sydney6,000 Melbourne4,834 Brisbane4,215 Perth1,516 Canberra872 Adelaide618 Darwin225 Hobart7 Total18,287

kpmg Sydney and Melbourne lead the big shift downtown

kpmg ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3, Age Group Population growth ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3, Age Group Population growth Sydney Melbourne 20-somethings lead the charge downtown 3,013 more year olds in 2001 than year olds in ,810 more year olds in 2001 than year olds in 1996

kpmg The ageing of the average Aussie bride Xer brides 29 in 2001 Bridegrooms Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971

kpmg Women want to work … and will make further gains by % Professional working women demand their own drink eg Cosmopolitan

kpmg No real change to male participation rates %

kpmg 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000, Year Population Baby boomers just won’t die!

kpmg It doesn’t get any better after Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

kpmg Average income by age 1986 Average income by age

kpmg 20-something50-something m2.385m m3.049m Trendy to be fifty … in 2021

kpmg The Shakira conspiracy

kpmg BornLabel Age (m) 2021 (m) Pre-boomers Boomers Xers Ys Zs Why the fixation with Baby Boomers?

kpmg … but the Swedes can’t surf! AustraliaSweden

kpmg Implications for business Financial-later commitment to mortgages; savvy older consumers; succession planning; superannuation; blending work and life Retail-shopping centre locations; shopping hours and flexibility; CBD supermarkets & convenience stores; bulky goods from household formation Consumer Goods-boomers want ‘lite’, fast, healthy foods eg noodles; fashion to accommodate larger sizes; longnecks replace stubbies; European & Asian food influences Motor vehicles-4WD giving over to 20-something female cars, eg Honda Jazz, VW Polo Pharmaceutical-staying young, fit and vital; shift to wellness; nicotine patches

kpmg Dense Australians in 2001 Zipcode has 59,000 people per sqkm Upper East Side Kings Squash Kings Cross has 18,000

kpmg Further information & contact Population Growth database 2002 – March 2003 The Big Shift 2 – mid-July 2003 Links: Contact: Bernard Salt (03) ; Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every second Thursday (next 12 June 2003) KPMG Firstbuy – pick-up on your way out