1 2014-2015 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Cameron Thraen, OSU-AEDE Extension State Specialist Dairy Markets & Policy AEDE/OSU:

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Canadian Dairy Outlook Ron Versteeg CIPLE September 2011 Argentina.
Advertisements

Chart source: Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, ACB (confidential and proprietary) 13 th Annual Farmer Cooperatives Convention December 6-7, 2010 Economic.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.
April 2014 Dairy Commodity Market Situation & Outlook.
Overview of U.S. and Michigan Dairy Industries Dr. Craig Thomas Michigan State University Extension Dairy Educator Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, St. Clair,
Dairy Market Outlook and Policy Update
December 14, 2010 Katie Behnke UW-Extension Agriculture Agent.
Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra,
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.
Agricultural Economics “Takes a Licking and Keeps on Ticking” Economic Outlook for Fall 2005 Craig Infanger and Larry Jones.
The Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture: 2004 projections John Hammel, Dean Ben Eborn, Extension Educator Garth Taylor, Extension Economist.
Photos courtesy of USDA Jason Henderson Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch May 14, 2008 U.S. AGRICULTURE: What Goes Up Must.
Agricultural Economics Economic Outlook 2010 Craig Infanger October 2009.
An Overview of Wisconsin and US Agricultural Economy Bruce L. Jones Director, Renk Agribusiness Institute August 2013.
Don Shurley Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics The University of Georgia Georgia Farm Bureau February 10, 2011 Macon, GA.
Outlook for the U.S. Dairy Sector in 2012 Milton Madison Farm Service Agency U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented at the 2012 USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
T HE N ATIONAL P ROGRAM ON D AIRY M ARKETS AND P OLICY MPP-Dairy Update Overview of margin forecast for the year ahead Updates to MPP-Dairy Decision Tool.
Farm Bill/Dairy Policy February 26, 2014 Dairy Gross Margin, LLC Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied.
Agricultural Economics Grain Market Outlook by Cory G. Walters University of Kentucky (859)
Status of the Wisconsin Farm Economy, 2015 Bruce L. Jones Director, Renk Agribusiness Institute College of Agricultural and Life Sciences UW-Madison (608)
Steve Watrin Cell: Minneapolis, Minnesota Nov. 3,4, 2011.
Farm Bill Margin Insurance: Is It Worth It? Dr. Marin Bozic Elite Dairy Producers Conference Las Vegas, November 12, 2013.
2007 Montana Agricultural Outlook George Haynes Vincent Smith David Buschena Department of Agricultural Economic & Economics and MSU Extension.
Milk, Feed, and MPP Margin Price Forecasting John Newton University of Chuck Nicholson Penn State University.
Empowering Farmers The Canadian Supply Management Experience Bruce Saunders 1st Vice-President, Dairy Farmers of Canada Chapeco, Brazil, January, 2005.
Mark Stephenson Director of Dairy Policy Analysis University of Wisconsin, Madison Dairy Security Act as an Option For the Farm Bill.
Extension Summer Outlook Conference | Connecting Cows, Cooperatives, Capitol Hill, & Consumers | August 2015 C o n n e c t i n gC o w s,C o o p e r a t.
The Dairy Farmer Margin Protection Program USDA’s Safety Net For Producers: 2016 Enrollment Update 1.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Corn and Soybean Prices and Outlook Ag Prices Conference August 27, 2008 Wisconsin Dells Rami Reddy UW-Platteville.
Outlook for Wisconsin and U.S. Dairy Markets FARM Team Agricultural Prices Conference Brian W. Gould Associate Professor Department of Agricultural and.
Industry information K Coetzee August Contents International economy International dairy situation SA economic situation SA dairy situation.
Agricultural Commodity Outlook Gerald A. Bange Chairperson World Agricultural Outlook Board Office of the Chief Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Situation and Outlook for the U.S. Dairy Industry Uthra Raghunathan Agricultural Economist USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Dairy Programs February.
FY 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY2016 Forecasts Exports $7.0 billion to $131.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $122.0 billion Surplus.
Farm Bill Dairy Programs: National Politics and Individual Decisions Dr. Marin Bozic Dairy Business Milk Marketing Cooperative Madison, WI, December 2,
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed May 12, 2016 Detroit, MI David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist
FY 2014 & 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Initial FY 2015 Forecasts Exports = $144.5 billion Imports = $117 billion Surplus = $27.5 billion Changes.
The Dairy Farmer Margin Protection Program USDA’s Safety Net For Producers: 2017 Enrollment Update 1.
Margin Protection Program
Dairy Market Outlook Josh Maples Asst. Prof. Mississippi State Univ.
Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Crop Marketing & Outlook
Agricultural Market Outlook July 17, 2014
Livestock and Grains Situation and Outlook January 2018
Margin Protection Program USDA’s Safety Net For Producers:
Margin Protection Program USDA’s Safety Net For Producers:
Marketing and Risk Farming for the Future: Emerging Opportunities in Livestock Production Ames, Iowa Jan. 16, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets.
LGM-Dairy: An Analysis of Program Performance and Cost under Alternative Policy Configurations 1Victor E. Cabrera, 2Brian W. Gould, and 1 Mayuri Valvekar.
Crop Market Outlook for 2014
Ag Outlook Clear Lake Bank & Trust Ag Meeting Clear Lake, Iowa
Crop Situation & Outlook
Current Feed Situation and Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Grain Marketing and Risk Management Update
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Market Outlook ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012
Crop Market Outlook Pro Ag
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Grain Marketing & Risk Management Update
Crop Market Outlook for 2014
Crop Market Outlook Pro Ag
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
The Dairy Margin Coverage Program
The Dairy Margin Coverage Program
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
ACRE Update & Crop Outlook
Presentation transcript:

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Cameron Thraen, OSU-AEDE Extension State Specialist Dairy Markets & Policy AEDE/OSU: AEDE/OSU: US. Markets and Prices 2015 U.S. Dairy Export Markets Today’s Topics U.S. Dairy Safety Net Policy

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Ohio dairy numbers… 2013WayneHolmesKnoxAshland Lic Farms (a/m)233 (162)292 (133)45 (26)58 (75) Milk Cows32,50017,0003,5006,000 County Rank Source: Ohio Dept. Agric. Statistics Allocated revenue is the return to capital and management. Estimate Thraen Average number of cows per dairy farm: 61 cows 2001 & 96 cows 2014 Average production per dairy farm: 1.0m #’s 2001 & 1.9m #’s 2014 Allocated Revenue per cow estimate*: ~$1,400 {2007: $1, / 2009: $70.00}

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Ohio dairy numbers… Source: Ohio Dept. Agric. Statistics  Ohio Milk Cows ~ 267,000  Total Milk Production 2014 ~ 5.4 billion pounds  Gross Cash Revenue for Sale of Milk ~ $1.3 billion

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Notable Trends: U.S. total milk cow numbers edge up to million head. U.S. total milk production continues long run expansion reaching over 204 billion pounds in U.S. milk production per cow continues steady upward trend to 22,178 # in 2014,. Milk Cows & Production: U.S. Data source:

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Regional Comparisons.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Regional Comparisons.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Commercial Use Source : FMMO 32 Central Marketing Service Bulletin 10/14.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Demand Trends Consumer interest in dairy products lies with Cheese, primarily Cheddar and Italian types and with Yogurt. Beverage milk products continue a long downward slide despite promotion efforts. Perhaps a new strategy is in order? Source : FMMO 32 Central Marketing Service Bulletin 10/14.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. Dairy Trade U.S. Dairy Export Council

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. Dairy Trade MT and $ U.S. Dairy Export Council – Global Dairy Market Outlook Exports growth slows in 2014 on strong U.S butterfat and lactose prices.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Exports climb from less than 4% in 1996 to over 15% of U.S. milk production in Imports shrink to less than 3%. Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council USDEC U.S. Dairy Export Trade

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. Dairy Trade 2014 U.S. Dairy Export Council – Global Dairy Market Outlook U.S. Exports fall to lowest level in 19 months  increased supplies in Europe and Oceana  Russia imposes ban on imports from Europe  China slows imports in last half of 2014

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Dairy Exports All Products % of U.S. Production Used in Export Days of U.S. Production Exported Export Equivalent number of cows (000) U.S. All Milk Price ($ cwt) ,480~24.00 Importance of U.S. Dairy Trade U.S. milk production increased 34 billion pounds from 2003 – U.S. exports increased by 25.7 billion pounds absorbing 75% of the growth in U.S. milk production. Data source:

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Global Price Index 10 years history Global Dairy Trade 11-18

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Global Dairy Trade Trade Product Price Performance

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Danger on the Export Horizon Strong U.S. dollar and high U.S. dairy product prices could bring storms to the U.S. Export market in 2015 !

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. Dairy Trade 2014 U.S. Dairy Export Council – Global Dairy Market Outlook U.S. Exports Value continues to increase  $5.6 billion dollars in  Up 14% over  Most products show year to date increases in volume exported.

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. a Trusted Supplier Positive Trends that will continue:

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series C3 and C Projection CME forecast for C3 and C4 Milk in 2015 falls from 2014 highs. Lower butterfat and protein prices on the way in 2015

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. All Milk Price 2015 Forecast for U.S. All Milk Price in 2015 falls from 2014 highs. U.S. All Milk Price expected to soften in 2015

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series U.S. All Milk Price 2015 Lower Feed Input costs in 2015 coupled with a reduction in U.S. All Milk Price will keep IOFC margin strong for 2015.

Research & Extension education efforts supported by the following: The following USDA funding grant is acknowledged: USDA-AMS Cooperative Agreement: Risk Management in the U.S. Dairy Industry USDA-NIFA Award No Risk Management for U.S. Dairy Research & Extension education efforts supported by the following: The following USDA funding grant is acknowledged: USDA-AMS Cooperative Agreement: Risk Management in the U.S. Dairy Industry USDA-NIFA Award No

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series The Basic Design of MPP-Dairy Registration (CCC-781) and Coverage Election (CCC-782) 1.Establish the operation’s production history PH 2.Producers select a)Coverage Level Threshold - $4 to $8 in 50¢ increments b)Coverage Level Percentage – 25% to 90% of production history 3.One coverage level on all eligible milk 4.Change annually (within year termination only in case of death, retirement, dissolution) 5.Benefits calculated 6 times each year and paid on 1/6 th of PH THE LAST DAY TO FILE WITH THE FSA DECEMBER 05 ! MPP Safety Net Program

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series MPP Premium Rates FREE Tier 1: First 4M #s / Tier 2: After 4M #s $6.50 to $7.00 coverage has $0.54 increase in Tier 2 premium

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series IOFC 2015 Projection Margin forecast remains strong in 2015 and above the long term U.S. average of $ planning IOFC margin

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Closing Thoughts for 2015 Lagged U.S. milk production response to record equity buildup in 2014… Renewed concerns of general economic weakness outside the U.S…. End of dairy quota in Europe… Long term impact from Russia’s dairy import ban… How will these events translate into a lower U.S. All Milk price? Will U.S. grain and soybean meal prices remain low in 2015?

Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Cameron Thraen, OSU-AEDE Extension State Specialist Dairy Markets & Policy AEDE/OSU: AEDE/OSU: US. Markets and Prices 2015 U.S. Dairy Export Markets Today’s Topics U.S. Dairy Safety Net Policy