GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 1 Global Monitoring, Carbon Cycle Science, and Emission Verification James H. Butler with Pieter Tans, Colm Sweeney, Arlyn Andrews, John B. Miller NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory 28 September 2010

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 2 A challenge for the U.S. and the world Global society is advancing efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions now – in the U.S., voluntary efforts are underway and some regulatory efforts are in place Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs are challenging, but surmountable Large-scale emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) require independent, scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions  Stratospheric Ozone  Air Quality, Acid Rain, et al. 2

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page Develop System Establish Baselines Critical Verif ication Period Fine Grid, Robust Verification Enhance System Maintain System Percent of 2010 Emissions Time How will Society Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions?? We don’t know... but

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 4 Carbon Crucible – The Future Demands New and Expanded Approaches Increased Observations Improved Transport Models Enhanced Reanalysis

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 5 Surface-based Networks CarboEurope WMO Global Atmospheric Watch FluxNet TCCON NOAA AGAGE

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 6 Globalview, (annual) Data sets & Visual displays (variable) Interactive Data Visualization (daily) Greenhouse Gas Index (annual) CarbonTracker (annual) Global trends (monthly) DATA Products Services

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 7 How Surface and Air-based Measurements Contribute

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 8 Tall Tower Measurements ft high “Continuous” sampling at 3-6 levels Additional flask samples for ~50 tracers

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 9 Intake: 11m 30m 76m 122m 244m 396m Quantitative signatures of biological CO 2 uptake and release LEF: July 2007 Large diurnal cycle at lowest levels results from combination of nighttime respiration and shallow boundary layers. Park Falls, WI, July

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 10 tropopause ground Atmospheric Vertical Profiles

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 11 AirCore profile AirCore mean AIRS retrieval OCO retrieval FTS retrieval In-situ Measurements Help Understand Remote Signals

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 12 Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange Oceanic Measurements Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes Emission Inventories Deep Ocean Surface Based Satellite Aircraft Satellite Mapping Data Integration Products CO 2 and Other GHGs

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 13 Summary A comprehensive GHG information system is needed to inform policy and strategies of GHG emissions. Such a system includes increased observations, higher resolution modeling, and ensemble analysis. Observations include in situ and remotely sensed data. Surface and airborne measurements are useful, and in some cases essential, to  Provide reliable, accurate global trends and distributions  Understand trends in biospheric contributions  Improve inventories, especially of gases with biospheric interactions  Interpret and understand satellite retrievals  Separate biospheric from fossil fuel contributions  Attribute emissions reductions to sectors of the economy  Improve transport modeling

GHG Verification & the Carbon Cycle 28 September 2010 JH Butler, NOAA CAS Management Group Meeting Page 14 Questions? “Carbon Weather” January (net CO 2 emission) July (net CO 2 uptake) Long-term Observations CarbonTracker™