1 二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006 香港經濟概況 Hong Kong economy’s overview

2 Economic performance 9 quarters of above-trend growth Broad-based upturn Trade, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots; but construction still weak Significant and broad-based job creation; wages improving gradually Inflation creeping up but still low

3 Spectacular GDP growth all through 2005

4 Double-digit export growth for 3 years in a row

5 Domestic demand also played a role in recovery

Q1-Q3 (%) Manufacturing Construction Services Wholesale, retail and import and export trades, restaurants and hotels Transport, storage and communications Financing, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services GDP growth led by trading and financial/professional services

7 Broad-based improvement in labour market Unemployment down in all sectors, for all age groups and at all levels of education attainment Long-term unemployment declining Wages rising back; earnings of lower-income families also improving

8 Some jobs created since 2003 trough

9 Both unemployment rate and unemployment CSSA cases are falling

10 Labour income rising back

11 Workers earning $5,000 – $8,999 down markedly … while those earning $15,000 or more rose

Economic outlook GDP growth to settle back to more sustainable growth of 4 - 5%, still above past 10-year trend of 3.9% Another year of broad-based growth But risks from external environment and feed- through of higher interest rates Labour market to improve further Inflation edging up but still healthy

13 Economy set for still solid growth in 2006

14 Inflation creeping up but still low in 2006

15 Structural issues in labour market

16 Structural unemployment holding back the improvement in unemployment rate?

17 Current pace of employment creation actually stronger than those in the past (Time path of total employment in current upturn cf an average economic cycle in 80s and 90s)

18 Long-term unemployment rate falling in all age groups

19 …. and improving even for those with lower education

20 Why unemployment still so high ?

21 Construction still on distinct downtrend despite strong economic recovery

22 Also, consumer demand has yet to fully recover Per capita consumption 2005 % change over 1997 ($’000) Private consumption expenditure Consumption in Hong Kong Travel12-0.9

23 Result is GDP still way below trend growth experienced before the AFC

24 Still cyclical unemployment in overall terms

25 But labour force actually adjusting well to structural changes

26 No. of higher-skilled workers Share in employment* (’000)(%) Today, one out of three people in the workforce working at the managerial, professional or administrative level (*)Excluding FDH workers

27

28 No. of workers with tertiary education* Share in workforce* (’000)(%) Increasing number of workers having tertiary education (*)Excluding FDH workers

29 Value-added per service sector job on avg 60% higher than manufacturing Economy average Community, social and personal services Financing, insurance, real estate and business services Transport, storage and communication W/R, I/E and R/H Services Manufacturing (’000) Value added per person

30 The rising share of services in HK’s economy

31 Remarkable productivity track record

32 謝謝 Thank You