Renewable Resources Development Report California Energy Commission Business Meeting November 19, 2003 Ann Peterson Project Manager Technology Systems Division California Energy Commission

Legislative Requirements and Report Development Process SB 1038 reports in support of the state’s RPS Energy Commission: Comprehensive renewable resources plan CPUC: Comprehensive transmission plan for renewable electricity generation SB 1078: 20 percent by 2017 Energy Action Plan goal: 20 percent by 2010 Report Development Process Jun 24, 2003 Public workshop Jul 1, 2003 Preliminary Renewable Resources Assessment available Oct 1, 2003 Staff Draft Renewable Resources Development Report (RRDR) available for public comment Nov 7, 2003Committee Final RRDR Nov 19, 2003Possible Adoption of RRDR Dec 1, 2003Submit RRDR to Legislature

Renewable Energy: Goals and Potential for Statewide Retail Sales 262,150 GWh/yr* 29,965 GWh/yr Technical Potential 2003 (12%) 20% by ,170 GWh/yr 20% by ,980 GWh/yr *In addition, estimated potential for other WECC states is 3.7 million GWh/yr. Total electricity generated in California in 2002 was 272,509 GWh/year.

Online Renewable Energy Facilities in California

Online Renewable Energy Facilities Source: California Energy Commission, “ California Electricity Generation” California Electricity Generation 7,805 12,816 18,445 23,061 23,883 24,526 21,200 26,838 25,254 27, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30, GWh/year Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Generation in California ( ) in GWh/year California has been a leader in development of renewable energy. Current efforts continue this trend.

Grid-Connected PV Capacity Installed in California (Cumulative) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50, ** Year kW PV market has undergone substantial growth in recent years.

Accelerating California’s RPS Accelerating California’s RPS is part of an integrated strategy identified in the Energy Action Plan to maintain fuel diversity in electric generation: Reduce demand for electricity, especially peak hours Accelerate development of renewable energy Replace/repower inefficient gas-fired generation Estimated 2001 Baseline Estimated Energy Additions for statewide RPS 20% of Statewide retail sales by 2010 Estimated Energy Additions for Accelerated RPS Maintaining 20% from Estimated Interim Procurement 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,

Proposed Renewable Energy Projects in California Needs for 20% by ,800 GWh/year* Needs for 20% by ,610 GWh/year* *beyond known plans for 2004 Publicly known proposed projects with location: 26,390 GWh/year

California Renewable Technical Potential by Technology Source: Renewable Resources Development Report 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , ,000 GWh/year WindGeothermalBiomassSolar LowHighRER studyRRDR data Existing There are significant untapped renewable resources in California.

Technical Potential for Renewable Energy in other WECC states Source: Renewable Energy Atlas of the West There are significant untapped renewable resources in other WECC states as well.

Wind Class 6 CSPLFGGeothermal - Binary Cents/kWh Estimated Cost Trends for Renewable Energy Solid Biomass The cost of renewable energy continues to decline.

Driving Policy Issues for RPS  Transmission constraints  Adequacy of PGC funds to support RPS  Least cost and best fit  Financing costs for renewable generation  RPS in the “rest of the state”

Research on Renewable Energy in California Wind energy research activities Harness low-speed resources Model bird flight paths to avoid mortality of avian species Biomass research activities Expand capability to use lower cost fuels Geothermal research activities Reduce risk and cost of exploration Solar research activities Optimize methods and storage technologies that employ solar to help meet peak demand Increase operational compatibility Work closely with transmission system operators to identify and overcome system impacts

Conclusions California has been a leader in development of renewable energy. Current efforts continue this trend. PV market has seen substantial growth in recent years. There are plenty of renewable energy resources available to meet the RPS and the accelerated RPS. There are significant untapped renewable resources in California and other WECC states. The cost of renewable energy continues to decline. Key issues to watch include transmission constraints, adequacy of PGC funds, and “rest of state” RPS needs. Support continued research on renewable energy, including increase operational compatibility and work closely with transmission system operators to identify and overcome system impacts.