CEDM-Supported Research on Electric Vehicle Life Cycle Costs and Benefits Jeremy J. Michalek and Costa Samaras

2 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras CMU Vehicle Electrification Group Associate Professor Jeremy Michalek EPP and Mechanical Eng. Vehicle design and life cycle implications Assistant Professor Jay Whitacre EPP and Material Science and Eng. Battery technology Professor Chris Hendrickson Civil & Environmental Eng. Transportation and life cycle assessment Assistant Professor Shawn Litster Mechanical Eng. Fuel cells Professor Francis McMichael EPP and Civil & Environmental Eng. Battery technology, life cycle assessment Associate Professor Illah Nourbakhsh Robotics Institute Electric vehicle conversions Gregg Podnar Robotics Institute Electric vehicle conversions Dr. Constantine Samaras RAND Corporation (EPP Alum) Policy assessment Grace Heckmann Mechanical Engineering Market demand for alternative vehicles Orkun Karabasoglu Mechanical Engineering Life cycle implications of driving cycles Scott Peterson Engineering & Public Policy Life cycle emissions, battery life, vehicle to grid Apurba Sakti Engineering & Public Policy Battery design and cost modeling Elizabeth Traut Mechanical Engineering Plug-in vehicle design and charging infrastructure Tugce Yuksel Mechanical Engineering Battery degradation and thermal management Allison Weis Engineering & Public Policy Plug-in vehicles for wind power integration John Helveston Engineering & Public Policy Electrified vehicles in China

3 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras CEDM Activities and Outputs 1.Peer-Reviewed CEDM-supported research 2.Decision support to policymakers 3.Dissemination 4.Current activities

4 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras CEDM Activities and Outputs 1.Peer-Reviewed CEDM-supported research 1.Michalek, J.J., Chester, M., Jaramillo, P., Samaras, C., Shiau, C-S.,N., Lave, L.B Valuation of Plug-in Vehicle Life Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences of the United States of America. 108(40) Mashayekh, Y., Jaramillo, P., Samaras, C., Hendrickson, C.T., Blackhurst, M., MacLean, H.L., Matthews, H.S., Potentials for Sustainable Transportation in Cities to Alleviate Climate Change Impacts. Environmental Science and Technology. 46(5) Decision Support to Policymakers 3.Dissemination 4.Current activities

5 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Adding more batteries (all else being equal) means  Longer distance traveled on electricity before needing gasoline  More expensive  Heavier (less efficient)  More manufacturing emissions and resource consumption VehicleRangeBattery Toyota PHEV PriusPHEV124kWh GM VoltPHEV4016kWh Nissan LeafBEV7324kWh Ford Focus ElectricBEV7623kWh Paper #1: Plug-in Vehicle Benefits

6 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Estimated value of life cycle air emissions externality costs (health damages, etc.) and oil premium costs Benefit << $7500 fed tax credit Damage reduction potential is small compared to cost Trend does not match policy Plug-in vehicles must be cheap to be a good value Need R&D to reduce cost of batteries Value of Plug-in Vehicle Benefits

7 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Take Away In the near term, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more benefits per dollar spent  Also more robust to uncertainty in cost and emissions  If we achieve cheap batteries, expensive gasoline, clean electricity, and long battery life, large battery packs may eventually be best

8 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras What options do local policymakers have for reducing GHGs from transportation?  Use alternative fuels  Reduce demand  Change zoning Paper surveyed and summarized potentials around these areas Found synergies among policies that are often analyzed independently Paper #2: Local Policy

9 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Potential Life Cycle GHGs from Vehicles

10 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Dissemination Policy results presented on Capitol Hill (Michalek and Samaras)  Congressional Budget Office  Congressional Research Service  Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee  Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee  Several offices in the House of Representatives Secretary of Energy’s National Petroleum Council Study of Future Transportation Fuels (input: Michalek, Whitacre, and Samaras) Policy brief to appear in Issues in Science and Technology (June) (Michalek, Chester and Samaras) National Research Council committee service on U.S. Drive (Samaras)

11 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Dissemination Invited Talks  Cambridge University  Ford Motor Company  Argonne National Laboratory Media  Washington Post  Bloomberg Businessweek  Greenwire

12 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Plug-in vehicle benefits vary regionally, e.g.:  Under highway conditions, plug-in vehicles cost more and have few environmental benefits.  But under city conditions, plug-in vehicles could cut emissions in half while saving costs 20%  Regional factors: driving conditions, travel patterns, terrain, temperature, speed, acceleration, stop frequency, fuel prices, fleet mix, grid mix, charging infrastructure, air quality, etc. Current Activities Difference in GHG benefits of EVs under highway vs. NYC driving conditions

13 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Current Activities Vehicle design and controller optimization Assessing investment in charging infrastructure EVs to help integrate renewable energy Battery design and cost Battery degradation and thermal management Consumer perception and adoption

14 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Current Activities Preliminary research ideas for local decisionmakers:  Would replacement of streetlights with LED streetlights in EV adopting neighborhoods blunt some of the additional anticipated nighttime load by EVs in those neighborhood transformers?  Under various national transition scenarios to EVs, how much could residential energy efficiency improvements offset this additional load?

15 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Acknowledgements Carnegie Mellon  Climate Decision Making Center  Green Design Institute  Vehicle Electrification Group  Design Decisions Lab Support  CMU Climate Decision Making Center, NSF SES Grant #  NSF CAREER Grant #  NSF MUSES Grant #  Ford Motor Company  Toyota Motor Corp  Teresa Heinz Scholars for Environmental Research Program  Steinbrenner Institute

Questions & Discussion

Reference Slides

18 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Vehicle Electrification

19 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras How Much Can Electrification Help? Offset gasoline use  Reduces oil dependency Change emissions profile  Fewer emissions associated with gasoline production and combustion  More emissions associated with battery and electricity production We quantify: 1.Externality human health damages from life cycle air emissions 2.U.S. oil premium costs from gasoline consumption

20 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Oil dependency Oil Supply Disruption  Externalities estimated at $0.11/gal (Brown and Huntington)  Not enough to change trends Market Power  US Monopsony effect: $0.22/gal (Leiby) Military spending:  $75-$90 billion in 2009 (RAND) : $0.24-$0.28/gal  But…  Spending is nonlinear: Marginal reductions may have near-zero effect on military spending  Less than half of each bbl oil produced is used to make gasoline – large reductions require coordination

21 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Base Case Life Cycle Emissions & Oil

22 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Air Emissions & Oil Premium Costs Damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles  HEV & PHEV20 reduce damages vs. conventional vehicle  PHEV60 & BEV may increase or decrease damages

23 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Life Cycle Costs Base Case: Large battery packs are more costly over life. Optimistic: Plug-in vehicles have potential to offer lower damages at lower cost if battery prices and grid emissions drop; Gasoline prices and battery life increase Pessimistic: Plug-in vehicles could cost much more & cause more damage

24 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Sensitivity Analysis Life cycle air emissions externalities and oil premium

25 CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras Sensitivity Analysis Life cycle costs