Nicholas R. Lardy 1 National Committee on US-China Relations New York February 27, 2012 Nicholas R. Lardy Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis

Nicholas R. Lardy 2 Investment Share of GDP,

Nicholas R. Lardy 3 Consumption Share of GDP,

Nicholas R. Lardy 4 Real Return on Household One-year Deposits,

Nicholas R. Lardy 5 Household Saving from Disposable Income,

Nicholas R. Lardy 6 Investment in Residential Housing,

Nicholas R. Lardy 7 Peak Investment in Residential Housing: China, United States, India, and Taiwan

Nicholas R. Lardy 8 Composition of Urban Household Wealth, 1997 and 2010

Nicholas R. Lardy 9 Household Debt and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of Disposable Income,

Nicholas R. Lardy 10 Bank Exposure to Real Estate, Percent of Loan Book Percent Bank Capital

Nicholas R. Lardy 11 Current Account,

Nicholas R. Lardy 12 Additions to Foreign Exchange Reserves,

Nicholas R. Lardy 13 Sterilization Liabilities, Percent of GDP

Nicholas R. Lardy 14 The Winners and Losers from Financial Repression Winners:Losers: Coastal Provinces Inland Provinces Exporters and Import Competing Industries Importers and Consumers Commercial Banks Savers Property Developers and Local Governments First-time Homebuyers Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Finance Peoples Bank of China