U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Welcome to the USGS Webinar: New Science and Online Management Tools to Help Guide Action on Nutrients in Rivers in the Upper Midwest Region of the U.S., Especially in the Great Lakes Basin National Water-Quality Assessment Program Phone Line: # Thanks for joining the webinar, we will be starting soon.

 All phone lines will be centrally muted during the presentation.  Please submit your questions throughout the presentation using the GoToWebinar box.  Following the presentation, we will unmute the phone lines and go through the submitted questions. USGS Webinar

U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment New Science and Online Management Tools to Help Guide Action on Nutrients in Rivers in Upper Midwest Region of the U.S., Especially in the Great Lakes Basin

Northeast Southeast Upper Midwest Lower Midwest Missouri River Pacific Northwest Pacific Northwest Northeast Southeast Upper Midwest Lower Midwest Missouri River National Water Quality Assessment Program Surface Water Status and Trends Regions Southwest California

Use of SPARROW Models to Determine the Spatial Distribution and Sources of Nutrients in Streams in the Upper Midwest (608) By Dale M. Robertson* and David A. Saad U.S. Geological Survey Wisconsin Water Science Center

Approach - SPARROW Water-Quality Model – SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes  Separates land and in-stream processes  Mass Balance Model with spatially variable deliveries. Hybrid statistical/ mechanistic process structure. Data-driven, nonlinear estimation of parameters Fertilizers Atmospheric Dep. Sources Manure Point Sources Monitoring Data Annual Loads Y variable X variables  Predictions of mean-annual flux reflect long-term, net effects of nutrient supply and loss processes in watersheds  Once calibrated, the model has physically interpretable coefficients; model supports hypothesis testing and uncertainty estimation Land Use Steam/Catchment Network

Land-to-water transport Sources SPARROW Mass Balance modeling approach: Monitored load Long-term Detrended Instream Transport and Decay Upstream Flux ss DD II II - Regress water-quality conditions (monitored load) on upstream sources and factors controlling transport

Regression Equation behind the SPARROW Model Mass Balance Load at a specific site Flux from Upstream SPARROW Watersheds Flux from Within a SPARROW Watershed TransportSourcesTransport/Decay Land-to-Water Delivery Calibration Coefficients Calibration of National model was based on using 425 sites with coinciding loads and GIS information for the Midwest Model ~900 sites;

Upper Midwest SPARROW Model Calibration One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites Calibration Catchments based on RF1 River Network

Robertson and Saad, 2011

Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields Total Phosphorus Yields (kg km -2 ) 0 – – 2,980 Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Total Phosphorus Yields (kg km -2 ) 0 – – 2,980 Superior Huron Michigan Erie Ontario Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields Robertson and Saad, 2011

Regional Sparrow Models 1.National Link 2. Regional Link

Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions 1.Decision Support System Scientists/Managers – Capable of using to visualize SPARROW output and run various scenarios. Booth et al.,

Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions 2. SPARROW Mapper – Easy and simple way to get SPARROW results, especially by hydrologic and political boundaries.

Future SPARROW Modeling in the Upper Midwest Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin NHD-Plus MRB3 Models 3.Regularly Updated SPARROW Models

How can I get more information?  SPARROW Information:  New Regional Models:  MRB3 and Mississippi Basin Models:  Decision Support System  MRB3 SPARROW Mapper  Contacts: Dale Robertson Dave Saad Steve Preston