Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? 25 April 2012 Chris Landsea,

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Presentation transcript:

Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? 25 April 2012 Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA

How is global warming affecting: Tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, genesis, track, and overall activity?

A Typical Day in 2012 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

A Typical Day in 2008 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

A Typical Day in 1912 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

A Typical Day in 1911 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

2007 Hurricane Season - 15 Tropical Storms & Hurricanes… …9 of which were very short-lived (< 36 hr)

New Tools and Technologies ~ Additional TCs lately? AMSU Tropospheric Temperatures Hart’s Cyclone Phase Space Analyses Quikscat Surface Vectors

Big Upward Trend – Consistent with Technological Improvements

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones 7 8

Atlantic ship traffic changes Vecchi and Knutson (2008)

Estimated Number of “Missed” Tropical Storms and Hurricanes of Medium to Long Duration 2-3 per year in 1880s 1-2 per year in 1900s <1 per year in 1950s

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones 7 8

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – Upward Trend Gone After Adding in “Missed” and Removing Very Short-Lived Cyclones 9 8 Landsea et al. (2010, Journal of Climate)