Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Manila Observatory 14 April 2005

TYPHOON TRACKS

EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS

Where does the money go?

RISK likelihood of harm, loss, disaster

Physical impact of disturbance HAZARD Capacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard VULNERABILITY RISK Elements affected by hazard EXPOSURE

Risk = H x E x V

Exposure Population Natural habitat Conservation areas Groundwater

EXPOSURE POPULATION DENSITY 2000 National Statistics Office City/Municipal Population Data 1km x 1km grids

EXPOSURE NATURAL HABITAT Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSURE CONSERVATION AREAS Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSURE GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY Mines and Geosciences Bureau

Vulnerability Human Development Index –Education –Health –Economy Urban centers Socio-eco pressures Transport

VULNERABILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000) UNDP Education Health Income

VULNERABILITY HIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERS Task Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines

VULNERABILITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

VULNERABILITY TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITY POPULATION DENSITY 2000 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

Hazards/Risks Natural –Typhoon –Drought (El Nino) –Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide) –Volcano –Tsunami Anthropogenic –Deforestation –Mining –Climate change (temperature,rainfall)

HAZARD TYPHOON Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms, Typhoons, Super typhoons) 0.25º x 0.25º grids ( )

RISK (Typhoon) Ifugao La Union Cagayan Ilocos Sur Albay Mountain Province Kalinga Pangasinan Sorsogon Pampanga Camarines Sur Catanduanes Nueva Ecija Ilocos Norte Northern Samar Tarlac Apayao Rizal Benguet Camarines Norte

HAZARD EL NINO IPCC-DDC-CRU 0.5º x 0.5º grids ( )

RISK (Drought/El Niño) Sulu Basilan Maguindanao Lanao Del Sur Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Misamis Occidental Sarangani Zamboanga Del Sur South Cotabato Zamboanga Del Norte North Cotabato Sultan Kudarat Siquijor Tawi-tawi Negros Oriental Camiguin Davao del Norte Misamis Oriental Bukidnon

HAZARD EARTHQUAKE National Geographic Data Center 0.25º x 0.25º grids ( )

RISK (Earthquake) Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan Western Samar Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Surigao Del Sur Albay Rizal Cavite Cebu Occidental Mindoro Camarines Sur La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Laguna Metro Manila

HAZARD EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES PHIVOLCS

RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides) Albay Rizal Cebu Camarines Sur Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Western Samar Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Laguna Misamis Occidental Capiz Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte

HAZARD DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOES PHIVOLCS

RISK (Volcano) Sulu Albay Tarlac Zambales Negros Oriental Pampanga Batangas Davao del Norte Biliran Camiguin Laguna Sorsogon South Cotabato Camarines Sur Quezon North Cotabato Bukidnon Cagayan Leyte Negros Occidental

HAZARD TSUNAMI Environmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF

RISK (Tsunami) Albay Cavite Cebu Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Metro Manila Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte Surigao Del Sur Bulacan Romblon Bohol Misamis Oriental

HAZARD PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE Commonwealth and Scientific Research Organization 5.625º x 3.2º grids ( )

RISK (Temperature) Sulu Basilan Lanao Del Sur Maguindanao Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Zamboanga Del Sur Tawi-tawi Misamis Occidental Camiguin Siquijor Misamis Oriental Cebu Agusan Del Norte Zamboanga Del Norte Albay Sarangani Negros Oriental Negros Occidental Ifugao

HAZARD PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75º x 2.5º grids ( )

RISK (Rainfall Change) Albay Pampanga Ifugao Rizal Cavite Sorsogon Laguna Biliran Batangas Pangasinan Masbate Metro Manila Tarlac Nueva Ecija Northern Samar Aklan Capiz La Union Western Samar Romblon

HAZARD HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC-DDC-CRU 0.5º x 0.5º grids ( )

HAZARD DEFORESTATION Global DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

HAZARD MINING Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

Typhoons El Niño Earthquake EQ-Induced Landslides Volcano Tsunami Temperature Rainfall

In sum, harm’s way: Typhoon –Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east) Drought (El Nino) –Mindanao (central, west) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami –Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP Volcano –Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central) Climate Change –Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central) –Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)