Evaluation of River Flood Regulation using Model Predictive Control K. U. LEUVEN Patrick Willems Toni Barjas Blanco P.K. Chiang Bart De Moor Jean Berlamont.

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Presentation transcript:

Evaluation of River Flood Regulation using Model Predictive Control K. U. LEUVEN Patrick Willems Toni Barjas Blanco P.K. Chiang Bart De Moor Jean Berlamont SCD Research Division ESAT- K. U. Leuven May 6 th -8 th, th International Symposium on Flood Defence

Toni Barjas Blanco - 26th Benelux Meeting on Systems and Control - March 15th, Problem Description Principles of MPC Model of the Demer Uncontrollability Results Conclusion and Future Works Outline

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Introduction

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Introduction Current control strategy (three-position controller): If-then-else rules Based on current state Takes no rain predictions into account Simulations  far from optimal Better Alternative: Model Predictive Control (MPC)

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Model Predictive control: Principles Real-life analogy:

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, State Space Model Linear State Space Model: Nonlinear State Space Model: State: water levels, discharges, volumes Input: gate positions Disturbance input: rainfall

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Model Predictive Control: Principles Mathematical formulation: s.t. Initial state

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Model Predictive control Advantages: Disadvantages: Constraints Predictive Rainfall due to horizon Multiple Objectives Priorities Computational complexity

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Model of the Demer Possible modelling strategies: Black box: based on data Physical : physical laws Grey box : Combination of previous strategies In this work Grey box modelling from historical data (1998 and 2002)  Reservoir Type

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Schematical overview bassin

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Resultaten Schulensmeer Demer Schulenslake Gate K7Gate A

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Resultaten Schulensmeer Hopw qK7 Hs qA Hafw

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Model Validation

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Expert knowledge Water administration: Experience : Debatable w.r.t. optimality 1.Can be usefull to take into account e.g. N 2.Drastical change can be frightening Experience  Guidelines about filling order reservoirs

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Expert knowledge in MPC Constraint priorization: Ensures satisfaction high priority constraints 1.Divide the constraints in sets with different priority 2.Solve MPC control problem with all constraints 3.If infeasible  remove lowest priority contraints and resolve MPC control problem, increasing weights of variables corresponding to removed constraint set 4.Until a feasible solution  apply first calculated input

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Uncontrollability problem Typical use of MPC  control to a reference value In flooding prevention: 1.Control to reference value less important 2.Avoid flooding  Nonlineair behaviour is very important Most difficult nonlinearity example No derivatives

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Fuzzy model for derivatives model estimator MPC Fuzzy model y x u x ^ ^ A,B (Linearized system matrices)

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Results (Historical rainfall 1998) Three-position controller (currently in use): MPC with priorities: Control to 21.5 m Hopw en Hs < 23m TAW Hafw < 22.75m

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Results (Fictituous data based on data from 1998) Three-position controller (currently in use): MPC with priorities:

Toni Barjas Blanco - 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence - May 6 th -8 th, Conclusions and future works Conclusion: Model Predictive Control outperformed three- position controller Future works: Extend MPC to control the whole model Estimate state with moving horizon estimator Robust MPC wrt uncertainty rain prediction and modelling errors