Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Terrance G Onsager and Rodney Viereck National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center

Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

Space Weather Information Needs Information timeliness: • Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days) • Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm) • Alerts and Specifications (current conditions) Space Weather Category: • X-ray flares • Solar energetic particle events • Radiation belt electron enhancements • Geomagnetic storms • Ionospheric disturbances • Neutral density variations

Status of Current Space Weather Products M-flare and X-flare Probabilities M-flare and X-flare Probabilities X-ray Flux – Global and Regional Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Proton and Electron Radiation – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Activity – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances – Global and Regional Disturbance Probabilities – Global and Regional

Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD) Solar wind composition, speed, and direction Magnetic field strength and direction L1 NASA ACE ESA SOHO ● German Aerospace Center ● European Space Agency ● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan ● Radio Research Agency, Korea ● NOAA ● NASA ● U.S. Air Force

Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource NASA STEREO (Ahead) Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around the globe Ground Sites Magnetometers Riometers and Neutron monitors Telescopes and Magnetographs Ionosondes GNSS SOHO (ESA/NASA) Solar EUV Images Solar Corona (CMEs) COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA) Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles Ionospheric Scintillation ESA/NASA SOHO ACE (NASA) Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles Vector Magnetic field L1 NASA ACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES STEREO (NASA) Solar Corona Solar EUV Images Solar wind Vector Magnetic field GOES (NOAA) Energetic Particles Magnetic Field Solar X-ray Flux Solar EUV Flux Solar X-Ray Images POES (NOAA) High Energy Particles Total Energy Deposition Solar UV Flux NASA STEREO (Behind) Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

ACE Satellite L1 Measurements Solar wind Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles Vector Magnetic Field The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting Integral part of the daily forecast process Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms Used to drive and verify numerous models

NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013 Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012 All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet) DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission

Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11 CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up strategy if necessitated by schedule

COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2) COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life) Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014 Proposed partnership with Taiwan – Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land) Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration

Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC)

GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P GOES 15 2010 90W XRS/SXI (Storage) GOES 14 2009 106W Storage GOES 13 2006 75W MAG/EPS GOES 12 2001 60W South America GOES 11 2000 135W Secondary Ops GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT EARTH ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL. EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE MOON

GOES-R Status MPS-low: MPS-hi: SGPS EHIS Magnetometer electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions MPS-hi: electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directions Protons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions SGPS Protons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions EHIS 10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction Magnetometer Status Just finished instrument CDR Launch expected in 2015 Developing level 2 algorithms Integral flux Density and Temperature moments Event detection Magnetopause Crossings

New GEO particle product SEAESRT Implements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly hazard quotients Surface Charging Based on Kp Internal Charging Based on GOES >2 MeV electron flux Single Event Upsets Based on GOES >30 MeV proton flux Total Dose Based on GOES >5 MeV proton flux Publicly available 2010

Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI) Completely Different than GOES NOP: GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm) SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm)  Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range SUVI will provide Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness) Active region complexity (Flare forecasting) Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting) SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data: comparable resolution slower cadence incomplete spectral coverage SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: 16X as many pixels as SUVI Higher cadence image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly SDO AIA 30.4 nm

GOES R EUVS Improvements Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands No spectral information Difficult to interpret Impossible to build EUVS- A Channel EUVS- B Channel GOES R EUVS will take a different approach Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere. EUVS- C Channel GOES 14 Broad Bands 25.6 nm 28.4 nm 30.4 nm 117.5 nm 121.6 nm 133.5 nm 140.5 nm 275 - 285 nm 278.5 nm

Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS): SEMS will be continued through the end of the POES, DMSP, and Metop C Solar Irradiance measurements are planned, energetic particle measurements are not planned

Seventh Framework Cooperation Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS) Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems - Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements - Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances - Validation of forecast system Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS) Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.

Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research Infrastructures AO 1962 JRO 1963 MH SRF 1982 AMISR-Poker Flat PFR 2007 RISR-N,S 2011 Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system Modern ISR also allow continuous, real-time data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications

Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Motivation for WMO: • Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System • Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.) • Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings • Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency • Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL April 2008

Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather Officially established: 3 May 2010 WMO Programmes: - Aeronautical Meteorology Programme - Space Programme Terms of Reference: - Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through the WMO Information System (WIS) - Harmonized definition of end-products and services – including quality assurance and emergency warning procedures - Integration of Space Weather observations, through review of space- and surface-based requirements, harmonization of sensor specifications, monitoring observing plans - Encouraging research and operations dialog Membership: - Belgium - Brazil - Canada - China (Co-chair) - Colombia - European Space Agency - Ethiopia - Finland - Japan - International Civil Aviation Organization - Int’l Space Environment Service - International Telecommunication Union - UN Office of Outer Space Affairs - Russian Federation - United Kingdom - United States (Co-chair)

Summary • Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe • ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required. • Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radio- occultation is anticipated. • International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.