WA Landman. The RCOF concept  Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events occurred The record-breaking El Niño episode The holding of.

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Presentation transcript:

WA Landman

The RCOF concept  Towards the end of 1997 two important climate-related events occurred The record-breaking El Niño episode The holding of the first series of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in southern Africa  Awareness of the likelihood of an El Niño grew throughout 1997 Forums in other regions of the world was accelerated to provide assistance during the period of the event  The Forum process promoted the recognition in many parts of the world that short-range climate predictions could be of substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating climate variations  An important aspect of the Forums is the facility to bring together experts in various fields, local meteorologists and end-users of forecasts in an environment that encourages interaction and learning Capacity building is one of the key tasks

Regional Climate Outlook Forums  Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF)  Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF)  Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO : PRÉvisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest)  FOCRAII : Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (Asia)  Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (WCSACOF)  Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (SSACOF)  The Pacific Islands: The Island Climate Update  Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF)  Climate Outlook Forum for Central America  Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF)  South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)  Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean: The Outfield

Typical RCOF forecasts

Typical relative score between categories

Forecast vs. Observation: Probability of exceeding the 85%-tile of the climatological record; Three-category observations

The STREAMFLOW forecast 1946 quaternary catchments

IBSA-OCEAN ACCESS-JAMSTEC  To promote scientific cooperation among India, Brazil and SA to exchange expertise and knowledge in the fields of Ocean Science and Technology  Theme 1:Climate Variability and Change Research  MULTI-MODEL PREDICTION

Recent seasonal forecasts

Recommendation  CHFP data available through IRI data library In CPT format for CPT users  Process studies  Operational prediction by using forecasts from operational global models (again using the IRI data library)