Slide 1 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 1 September 2012 Forecast for Pakistan.

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Presentation transcript:

Slide 1 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 1 September 2012 Forecast for Pakistan

Slide 2 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 2

Slide 3 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 3

Slide 4 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 4

Slide 5 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 5

Slide 6 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 6 T1279 based on 3/Sept/2012; 00 UTC: MSL and 12 hours accumulated precip

Slide 7 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 7 T1279 based on 4/Sept/2012; 00 UTC: MSL and 12 hours accumulated precip

Slide 8 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 8

Slide 9 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 9 EPS based on 4/Sep/2012; 00 UTC: D+3 to D+5 EM and probability of precip > 100 mm

Slide 10 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 10 Rahimyar-Khan

Slide 11 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 11 Faisalabad

Slide 12 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 12 T1279 based on 5/Sept/2012; 00 OTC : MSL,850 hPa eq pot temp and 925 hPa winds

Slide 13 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 13 T1279 based on 5/Sept/2012; 00 UTC: MSL and 12 hours accumulated precip

Slide 14 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 14

Slide 15 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 15 EPS based on 5/Sep/2012; 00 UTC: D+2 to D+4 EM and probability of precip > 100 mm

Slide 16 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 16 Faisalabad

Slide 17 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 17 Rahimyar-Khan

Slide 18 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 18 SEVERE EVENTS IN FORECAST Comments The precipitations are starting to produce damages in Pakistan KARACHI: Monsoon rains have hit different parts of the country causing fifteen deaths in rain-related accidents Wednesday, Geo News reported. According to sources, heavy downpour in Tehsil Nasirabad of Azad Kashmir swept away seventeen people including two women and four children while the bodies of four persons were recovered. Police also confirmed the death of thirteen other persons who were drowned. Neelum Highway was blocked for sort of traffic due to land sliding while the administration has instructed the residents living at the banks of River Jhelum to shift to safer grounds. The signal of the EPS on Pakistan is consistent with the previous days. 5/September/2012

Slide 19 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 19 T1279 based on 6/Sept/2012; 00 UTC: MSL and 12 hours accumulated precip

Slide 20 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 20 EPS based on 6/Sep/2012; 00 UTC: D+1 to D+3 EM and probability of precip > 100 mm

Slide 21 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 21 Faisalabad

Slide 22 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 22 Rahimyar-Khan

Slide 23 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 23

Slide 24 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 24 Faisalabad

Slide 25 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 25 Rahimyar-Khan

Slide 26 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 26 The Pakistan Meteorological Department is issuing weather advisories (see below) Weather advisory issued today: Dated: 5th Sep, 2012 Time: 1700 PST Weather Advisory-4 Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted from Thursday to Saturday Heavy Rains would generate urban & flash floods in the vulnerable areas of the country Yesterday’s well marked Low Pressure Area is located over Madhya Pradesh (India) and adjoining areas today. This well marked low is likely to move northwest ward in next 48 hrs (towards Pakistan). Under the influence of this weather system strong monsoon currents would start to penetrate in Pakistan from Thursday, giving Widespread Monsoon rains with scattered heavy downpours in the country from Thursday to Saturday. Heavy downpours would generate urban and flash floods in the vulnerable areas during the period. There is also a probability of Riverine Floods, particularly in Eastern Rivers.

Slide 27 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 27

Slide 28 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 28 Update of the weather advisory issued by Pakistan Met Office Dated: 7th Sep, 2012 Time: 1700 PST Weather Advisory-6 Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted on Saturday/Sunday Heavy Rains would generate urban & flash floods in the vulnerable areas of the country Yesterday's well-marked Low Pressure Area has entered in eastern parts of Rajasthan (India) and adjoining areas today. This well marked low is likely to move further northwestward in next 24 hrs and likely to enter in southeast Punjab and adjoining areas of upper Sindh on Sunday. Under the influence of this weather system, strong monsoon currents would penetrate in central parts of Pakistan on Saturday/Sunday, producing widespread Monsoon Rains over there. A westerly wave is located over Afghanistan and its trough is extended up to western parts of Pakistan. Heavy rains would generate flash floods in the vulnerable areas of Southern Punjab, Upper Sindh, Lower KP and Northeast Balochistan during the period.

Slide 29 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 29 Faisalabad

Slide 30 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 30 Rahimyar-Khan

Slide 31 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 31 Probabilities of precip > 50 mm/48 hours

Slide 32 WMO training course October 2012 Slide 32 Today, the National Meteorological Service of Pakistan has posted the amount of precipitation accumulated over 24h (ending this morning) for a few stations. I have picked three locations: Jaccoabad 305mm/24h Sukkur 164mm/24h Rohri 152mm/24h These three locations are within the red box in the following plot: The forecast for the severe weather (precipitation above the 90 percentile) has been generally quite successful. 305 mm/24 hr