WMO Drought Activities Robert Stefanski Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division WMO

Global Distribution of (a) number of reported disasters, (b) reported deaths and (c) reported economic losses (1970–2012) (a) (b) (c) Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main 3

Global WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main

Regional Intercomparisons AFR ASIA SAM NCA PAC EUR Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main 5

Global Framework for Climate Services Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009

Why a Framework for Climate Services? Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services. Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services. Drew figure from data found on p. 123 (Ch 4) Fig. 4.1 Number of countries that were able, as of August 2010, to provide basic (category I), essential (category II), full (category III), and advanced (category IV) climate services.

GFCS Priorities Agriculture Disaster risk reduction Water Health

GFCS Components User Interface Platform (UIP) Climate Services Information System (CSIS) Observations and Monitoring Research, Modeling and Prediction Capacity Building

High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies March 11-15 2013 Over 414 participants from 87 countries Main Partners – UNCCD, FAO, WMO Key message: Help countries move from reactive to proactive drought policies 12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR) Final Declaration adopted – www.wmo.int/hmndp 10

Regional National Drought Management Policy Workshops Central & Eastern Europe, Romania - July 2013 Latin America and Caribbean, Brazil, Dec 2013 Asia-Pacific, Vietnam, May 2014 Eastern & Southern Africa, Ethiopia, Aug 2014 North Africa and SW Asia, Egypt, Nov 2014 West Africa / Wrap up – 2015 13

National Drought Management Policy Workshops - Sessions Country Reports Keynote Presentation – Don Wilhite Drought monitoring and early warning systems - WMO Vulnerability and risk assessment – UNCCD Biodiversity and Drought – CBD Drought preparedness, mitigation and responses – FAO www.ais.unwater.org/droughtmanagement 14

Users of Agrometeorological Information Any drought decision-maker: International officials (i.e. Red Cross, WFP, ISDR) Government officials Ag Extension agent, Water resource manager Farmers, ranchers, foresters, fishers Media General public 15 15

Indicators & Triggers Definitions Indicators: Variables to describe drought conditions. Examples: precipitation, streamflows, groundwater, reservoir levels, soil moisture, Palmer indices, … Triggers: Specific values of the indicator that initiate and terminate each level of a drought plan, and associated management responses. Example: precipitation below the 5th percentile for two consecutive months is a Level 4 Drought. Source: Svoboda, 2009

Integrated Drought Management Programme - IDMP www.idmp.info 18

The Cycle of Disaster Management Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

IDMP Objectives To support stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management.  Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies: Better scientific understanding & inputs for drought management; Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction and early warning; Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; and Drought risk reduction and response 20

IDMP Areas of Work Development of Tools Capacity Building Demonstration Projects Responding to Regional and National Needs 5) Development of Drought HelpDesk For example development of National Drought Management Policy Guidelines and Tool on developing Early Warning Systems Linked to the tools and tailor made Currently support to regional projects on drought management in CEE, WAF and HoA and supporting development of drought management programmes in other regions Linked to 3) and upon request The HelpDesk will be the entry point/portal to contact the IDMP/ get information on IDM. Modelled on APFM HelpDesk. To be launched at World Water Week 2014 once contents developed and programme fully operational. 21 21

Drought Help Desk Two function areas Help Yourself Get Help Drought Management Tools Questions and Answers bank Reference Centre databases Discussion group using social media Get Help Personal assitance for Drought Management (policies, laws, strategies) Capacity building A rapid guidance to the tools of the Help Yourself The HelpDesk will be the entry point/portal to contact the IDMP/ get information on IDM. Modelled on APFM HelpDesk. To be launched at World Water Week 2014 once contents developed and programme fully operational. 22

Current Actions - IDMP Established at HMNDP – March 2013 Donor funding to IDMP Technical Support Unit created Jul-Aug 2013 Advisory Committee & Management Meeting Sep 2014 IDMP regional projects Central and Eastern Europe West Africa East Africa South Asia Drought Monitoring System (IWMI) 23

Organizations interested to participate in IDMP (Status November 2014) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Australian Bureau of Meteorology Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) International Commission for Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Joint Research Centre (JRC) Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA) Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) UNDP Cap-Net United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Institute University of Southern Queensland UN-Water Decade Programme on Capacity Development World Bank

IDMP CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) Executed by GWP CEE. Implementation well on its way with 64 agreements with 28 partner institutions. Implementation started in June 2013. Fundraising for continuation beyond 2015 ongoing. Focus of the IDMP CEE: Awareness raising National Drought Policies/ Action Plans: Guidelines for preparation of the drought management plans within river basin management plans according to European Union Water Framework Directive National consultation dialogues to discuss preparation of drought management plans Drought monitoring platform with information for the region on the status of drought Demonstration projects testing innovative solutions for better resilience to drought Capacity building trainings and workshops on national and regional levels Documentation: Compendium of good practices

South Asian Drought Monitoring System a collaboration of GWP-WMO-IWMI as part of the WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Regional Drought Monitoring System to support regionally coordinated drought mitigation efforts that can be further tailored to the national level Moving from crisis management to risk management User ownership through GWP South Asian Regional Water Partnerships with the Country Water Partnerships in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to work with relevant actors from Government, research and civil society in the region to ensure the system addresses need. Technical development by CGIAR International Water Management Institute integrating remote sensing and ground truth data (vegetation indices, rainfall data, soil information, hydrological data) for Government support through WMO Climate Outlook Fora, Regional Climate Centers and HydroMet Services as platforms for knowledge exchange and user involvement

South Asian Drought Monitoring System Expected Outputs Enhanced understanding and quantification of drought’s magnitude, spatial extent, and potential impact to capture the complexity of drought onset, progression, and extremity; Produce historical to current high spatial and temporal drought risk maps to provide current view of drought propagation on a weekly-basis; Identify drought hotspots, support preparedness and drought mitigation and provide early warning at regional, national, state and community level Operational drought monitoring system(s) installed in national center(s) and regional hub National capacity in drought monitoring built in all participating countries to address the gaps identified through needs assessment Regional sharing and dissemination of operational drought information the users can download at country level for subsequent analysis

Outcomes of Sep 2014 IDMP Meetings Proposed publications: Integrated Drought Management Framework Document Drought Indices Handbook Series of Case Studies Engage with partners to exchange information on drought to further enhance HelpDesk Develop cooperation mechanism with partners to allow contributions to IDMP in consistent way avoiding duplications. Consider organizing an international conference on drought management in 2016 29

2009 Seminar - Mali Met Service Presentation 30 30

2009 Seminar – Farmers ask Questions 31 31

2009 Seminar – Demonstration of Raingauge 32 32

Distribution of Rainguages to Nigerian Farmers

METAGRI Project - Roving Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers in West Africa Goal: increased self-reliance of rural farmers by raising awareness of effective weather & climate risk management and sustainable use of weather and climate information and services for agricultural production. (2008-2013) involved 15 countries organized over 350 seminars 14,300 farmers participated including 1,400 rural women 7,000+ rain gauges were distributed 34

S2S structure

Database Description www.s2sprediction.net Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts 3 weeks behind real-time Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree) Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available Database to open in early 2015, initially with 3 models (ECMWF, NCEP and JMA) www.s2sprediction.net

S2S partners Time-range Resol. Ens. Size Freq. Hcsts Hcst length Hcst Freq Hcst Size ECMWF D 0-32 T639/319L91 51 2/week On the fly Past 18y 2/weekly 11 UKMO D 0-60 N96L85 4 daily 1989-2003 4/month 3 NCEP D 0-45 N126L64 4/daily Fix 1999-2010 1 EC D 0-35 0.6x0.6L40 21 weekly Past 15y CAWCR T47L17 33 1981-2013 6/month JMA D 0-34 T159L60 50 1979-2009 3/month 5 KMA N216L85 1996-2009 CMA T106L40 1992-now Met.Fr T127L31 monthly 1981-2005 SAWS T42L19 6 1981-2010 HMCR D 0-63 1.1x1.4 L28 20 10

Summary related to GDIS Issues Global Drought Research / Forecasting important (WCRP, S2S, GFCS-CSIS) Regional Monitoring can be linked to existing projects & capacity development at regional / national projects Users / partners includes RCCs / RCOFs, UN (WFP, FAO), CCAFS, FEWSNET, GEOGLAM Focus on areas not covered Data issues need to be addressed at several levels (GFCS, WIGOS, GDIS partners) 38

Thank you for your attention rstefanski@wmo.int

Global WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main

Regional Intercomparisons WMO AFR ASIA SAM NCA PAC EUR Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main 41