Development-Oriented Approach to Climate Risk Management Milen Dyoulgerov Disaster Management and Adaptation Coordinator GFDRR September 21, 2010

The climate is already changing Adaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved current climate and disaster risk management capacity Approaching climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) work as a continuum, as do our developing country partners CCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly a basic issue of due diligence, while CCA investments that do not address current climate risks could fall short of meeting countries’ development needs

Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Most climate change impacts, especially in the short to medium term, will materialize through variability and extremes Reducing disaster risk is thus a no-regrets CCA strategy DRR and CCA should largely be managed as one integrated agenda: Climate Risk Management To date, CCA and DRR communities have largely operated in isolation. This must change as a matter of urgency. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction have similar aims and mutual benefits. They are two complementary approaches for sustainable development with areas of overlap offering opportunities for synergies. However, to date the climate change and disaster risk reduction communities have operated largely in isolation from each other – for a number of reasons. A global concern exists about the high transaction costs of working in silos and failing to capture important synergies (focal points for the two tracks often reside in different ministries within governments or different departments within organizations).

Some terminology (cont.)…. Climate Risk Management treats economic development, DRR, and CCA as a continuum considers both short- and long-term climate variability and risks in an integrated manner focuses not only on avoiding adverse outcomes but also on maximizing opportunities in climate-sensitive sectors – e.g., farmer productivity covers a broad range of potential actions, such as land use planning and zoning, financial instruments, infrastructure design and capacity building, climate and weather information systems, early-response systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource-allocation rules, etc.

Climate Risk Management (CRM): How partner countries see it most developing country partners rarely make a distinction between development assistance targeting current versus longer-term climate variability and risk differentiation in financing modalities and sources can add confusion and deepen institutional capacity and coordination issues most CASs/CPCs address DRR and CCA in conjunction, if at all countries like the Maldives and Vietnam take leadership by adopting integrated national CRM strategies and platforms; other countries in the process of doing so Basis for establishing the national platform National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020. Action plan for implementing National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020. Community Based Disaster Risk Management Program National target program to respond to climate change. Climate change and sea level rising scenarios Action Plan Framework adapting to Climate change of Agricultural and Rural development sector in stage 2008-2020 Law of Disaster Management (under construction) Maldives ---- STRATEGIC NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 2010-2020 The huge costs of disasters in terms of lost lives, property and productivity are expected to be exacerbated by climate change impacts during the coming decades. There is, therefore, good sense in finding an approach that will address both concerns with simplicity and comprehensiveness, and extra benefits as well. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have similar aims and may utilize the same tools that have proven effective over the years. Vietnam Current impact: ~1.5%GDP CC projections: 1 of 5 worst affected countries National Disaster Risk Reduction platform for information sharing, institutional development, coordinated planning, sector work, and investments, including donor programs and aid, related to all aspects of climate risk management Central government coordination mechanism at the Vice-minister level chaired by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development that brings together central and local governments, academia, NGO/IGOs, and donors.

Climate Risk Management: How we see It The climate is already changing: from shifting seasonal patterns of precipitation and extreme weather events to unprecedented floods, droughts, and heat waves adaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved current climate and disaster risk management capacity similarly, CCA investments should increase resilience to current climate variability while preparing for future shifts in climate conditions From development perspective integrating CCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly becoming a basic issue of due diligence CCA investments that do not simultaneously address current climate risks could fall short of meeting countries’ development needs From operational perspective shared analytical and methodological tools/approaches common risk financing toolkit of policies and products DRR often an entry point for CCA engagement post-disaster reconstruction as an opportunity for climate-smart (re)development

Climate Risk Management: How we see It Opportunities in recovery reduction of climate vulnerability to future hazards climate risks addressed in recovery plans Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) to guide disaster and climate resilient recovery planning estimates of the damages and losses in all social and economic sectors base for a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction strategy examples: Namibia, Bangladesh, Haiti, CAR, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Senegal, Burkina Faso… risk assessments as a basis for post-disaster land use planning and building codes examples: Yemen, Madagascar

Malawi Econ Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Climate Risk Management: How we see It majority of Bank analytical and programming work on adaptation at both country and regional levels has been either initiated or co-financed by DRR resources as integrated CRM initiatives—a similar trend emerges with investment operations CRM approach built in the PPCR country programs in Bangladesh, Zambia, Mozambique (among others), based on existing DRR and CCA analytical and capacity-building work Climate Risk Financing advanced by Treasury, GFDRR, and Regions in an integrated manner to meet partner countries’ DRR and CCA needs Malawi Econ Vulnerability and Risk Assessment North Africa Adaptation Action Plans assessing most threatening climate hazards, floods and droughts, followed by a probabilistic risk analysis and projection of economic impacts as a foundation for CRM capacity-building and investment CRM AAA financed with both DRR and CCA dedicated funds to assess climate risks with 2030 horizon and propose adaptation and preparedness options for Alexandria, Casablanca, and Tunis Moldova Disaster and CRM project Moldova PDNA to strengthen national Hydromet Service's ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova's capacity to prepare for and respond to climate disasters and future climate risks in the agriculture sector in particular in the aftermath of extreme floods preceded by extreme draughts, a window of opportunity to build back better, incorporating climate-smart water resource management and infrastructure

Climate Risk Management: How we see It ICM interventions bring high economic returns A GFDRR-WB Study on Economics of Hydro-meteorological Services in Central Asia : Investment in information and knowledge: each € 100 spent in meteorological systems yields at least € 200 in avoided damages Source: World Bank.

Adaptive Risk Governance Climate Risk Management (CRM): Changing nature of risk Climate Risk Management Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Financing . Disaster Preparedness and Recovery Adaptive Risk Governance Options-based management and adaptive decision-making Added temporal and political risk dimensions Added factors: temporal spatial political economy Added factors political intergeneration equity Added factors temporal limitation not to substitute for development financing Slow outset, long term structural shifts in everyday and in extensive risks adaptive functions In Mekong river delta area, there are 12 provinces with 33 industrial parks, or 10% of all industrial park nationwide, So far for last 50 years -- 0.5 - 0.7 o C, and SLR of about 20 sm Climate change : more severe and/or frequent natural disasters, especially cyclonic storms, floods and droughts becoming more extreme in Vietnam. low emission high emission    Mean surface temperature 1.1 – 1.9 2.1 – 3.6 C in Rainfall 1.0 – 5.2% 1.8 - 10.1% SLR 65sm 100sm If the sea level rises by 1 meter, 90% of the Mekong River Delta area will be flooded during the flood season, and 71% will be salted during the dry season, and about 20 million people will be affected in terms of housing.

Climate Risks are changing The major developmental challenges and main drivers of underlying disaster risks are also the major determinants for adaptation action weak urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods, and declining ecosystems, Climate Risks are changing quantitative shifts, in frequency and scale of extreme events qualitative shifts, in risk types and threshold states spatial shifts, with countries’ risk profiles changing There can be no sustainable development without integrated and fully mainstreamed climate risk management The approaches to managing these risk need to evolve Integrated climate risk management approach as a development- enabling factor

From concepts to development practices Strong methodological and operational base for integrating climate adaptation in national strategies as well as in the critical window of post-disaster recovery planning and operations, established at the global level in cooperation with the UN, RMDBs, and the EC Building on needs and synergies in terms of geospatial and climate risk information, GFDRR and the Climate Change Team have initiated country adaptation profiles for all Bank Regions -- an operational tool for practitioners for just-in-time reference information, to be later expanded with sector-specific climate risk guidance

Building on its strong partnership with the WBG Treasury and the Insurance Group, GFDRR is establishing a center of expertise for catastrophic risk financing and insurance for providing analytical and operational support Recognizing Social protection as a critical component of climate risk management, GFDRR seed funding has enabled pioneering work on the social dimensions of climate change in Africa and is now supporting multi-country analysis on adaptation for the urban poor. On-going work on results measurement and indicators

Helping Partners Stay Ahead Understand risks and priorities Develop hazard and risk analysis, use improved climate data, adaptation needs assessments Encourage a shift toward climate-resilient growth across all sectors Mainstreaming in existing strategies ensures that objectives are met; use sectoral strategies to reach local governments and communities; build on existing platforms Provide budget allocation for: Climate-resilient public infrastructure (e.g., roads, dams) Preparedness and emergency response to extreme events Information to help citizens in their everyday decisions (e.g., early warning systems, seasonal forecasts) R&D and extension services in agriculture Provide for unforeseen events; create contingency funds, sign contingent loans, and/or buy insurance for emergency responses to climatic disasters Design policies Support line ministries Plan ahead with contingency funds

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