Population Change Revision WARNING! This PowerPoint should act as a supplement to your revision and NOT form the basis of the only revision that you do. Case studies must for example, be learned in greater detail than is given in this show.

The Syllabus Opposite is a copy of the syllabus for this unit of work. It should help you to highlight any gaps in your notes and learning.

A case study of China’s policy since the 1990s and one of a non birth control population policy. We have looked at Transmigration in Indonesia. For both places, you need to be able to describe the policy and evaluate where it has been successful (advantages and disadvantages) A case study of the effects of an EU country with in-migration. We looked at the UK and considered the effects of migrant workers from Eastern Europe (positive and negative). Main Case Studies A case study of the problems and strategies in one EU country with an ageing population. We looked at the UK.

What does this show?

World Population Growth Key facts World population growth over the last 200 years has been spectacular and has not stopped yet From 1950 there was a population explosion and the total world population reached 6 billion in 1999. The world’s population has grown exponentially. This means growth has been very rapid. World population growth is beginning to slow down however there are still more countries in the world where birth rates exceed death rates leading to a natural increase

Understanding population terms Crude birth rate - the number of live births per 1000 population per year Crude death rate - the number of deaths per Natural Increase - the birth rate minus the death rate Annual population growth - the birth rate minus the death rate plus or minus the migration Migration - the movement of people either into or out of the area 6

Birth rates!! In MEDCs BR averages between 12-13 per 1000 In LEDCs BR averages between 26-27 per 1000 There is a relationship between birth rates and economic development. Countries in Africa such as Niger and Angola have some of the highest birth rates in the world (55.2 and 52.3). These countries are also some of the poorest in the world In contrast European countries have some of the lowest birth rates in the world (Austria 8.6 and Germany 8.7) and these are some of the richest places in the world.

Death Rates….. Unlike birth rates, death rates are similar between rich and poor countries The world average is between 9 and 10 per 1000 During the second half of the 20th century death rates fell everywhere due to the spread of medical knowledge and improvements in primary (preventing disease) and secondary (treating illnesses) health care. Countries that do have high death rates are exceptional and most of these are in Africa. South Africa has a high DR due to the spread of HIV/AIDS. Sierra Leone has suffered civil war.

Factors that can affect birth and death rates Poor health care Food shortages New hospitals Factors that can affect birth and death rates Good harvest Children needed to help with work Traditions for larger families War Improved water supply These are just a few! Remember that you must be able to say which are SOCIAL, ECONOMIC and POLITICAL Birth control available

What are the consequences of rapid population growth? Environmental: pollution and soil erosion (can lead to desertification and salinization) Socio-economic problems: unemployment, overcrowding, growth of shanty towns Political Problems: such as how to plan and pay for housing, education and food and how to stop rapid population growth.

What changes high birth rates? How do different countries approach this? Family planning and information services (India and Sri Lanka) Better education and literacy Improved health care so that fewer children die Better employment prospects Later marriages Migration to cities Education and careers for women Incomes distributed more equally; rising living standards Choose 4 of these approaches and explain how they help to reduce birth rates

The Demographic Transition Model The demographic transition model shows population change over time. The model studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country. It is divided into five stages (although the original model only had 5): Stage one - the total population is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates. Stage two - the total population is starting to rise as death rates start to fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation but birth rates remain quite high. Stage three - the total population is still rising rapidly, but the gap between birth and death rates narrows due to fewer children needed to work in farming and the availability of contraception. Now the natural increase is high. Stage four - the total population is high, but it is balanced due to a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families. Stage five - The total population is high but going into decline due to an ageing population and a continued desire for smaller families, with people opting to delay having children until later in life.

What are the limitations of the DTM? The demographic transition model has two limitations: The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world. It is EUROCENTRIC. The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a fifth stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21st century.

You need to be able to label the stages of the demographic transition model ; explain what is happening in each stage in relation the birth rate, death rate and natural increase; know when the UK was in each stage and be able to give reasons why.

Population structure and pyramids Population structure means the 'make up' or composition of a population. Looking at the population structure of a place shows how the population is divided up between males and females of different age groups. Population structure is usually shown using a population pyramid. A population pyramid can be drawn up for a whole country or an individual town, city or village.

Mozambique 2000 A youthful population Low numbers of elderly indicates low life expectancy Mozambique 2000 Elderly independents Pyramid tapers in rapidly indicating high death rate Economically active Wide base indicates high birth rate Young dependents A youthful population

UK 2000 An ageing population Taller pyramid indicates long life expectancy UK 2000 Elderly independents Bulge in the middle indicates low death rate Economically active The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising. This is due to: Improvements in health care and medicine. Increased leisure and recreation time. Improved knowledge about the importance of a balanced diet and regular exercise. Improved living standards and quality of life. An ageing population As people live longer the structure of a population changes. Many MEDCs are now experiencing a significant increase in the numbers of elderly people as a proportion of the population as whole. As birth rates fall and people have smaller families, the number of young dependants is falling and the number of elderly dependants is rising. In the near future this will mean that there are fewer people of working age to support the elderly population. To try to balance out an ageing population, some countries adopt a pro-natalist policy - that is, they encourage people to have more children by offering them benefits, such as better access to childcare and better conditions for maternity leave Narrow base indicates low birth rate Young dependents An ageing population

How may a pyramid change over time? A population pyramid that is very triangular (eg Mozambique in 2000) illustrates a population with a high number of young dependants and a low life expectancy. A population pyramid that has fairly straight sides (more like a barrel) illustrates a population with a falling birth rate and a rising life expectancy. Over time, as a country develops, the shape of its population pyramid changes from a triangular shape to a barrel-like shape with straighter edges. Places that are experiencing an ageing population and a very low birth rate may have a population structure that looks a little like an upside-down pyramid. You need to be familiar with how Britain’s population structure has changed over time and what its pyramid might look like in each stage of the DTM.

You need to know the causes consequences of an ageing population and a youthful population and attempts to solve these problems in MEDCs and LEDCs

Causes… Youthful Population (LEDC) Rapidly growing population (high birth rate) due to: Demand for larger families For children to earn money and look after parents in when elderly Social status (the more children you have the more important you are seen to be) Certain religions prohibit the use of contraception High infant mortality Ageing Population (MEDC) Life expectancy is high due to: Better health care, vaccines, surgery and medicines Family size is smaller Women choosing to peruse a career and therefore having children later in life Children are expensive Low infant mortality

Consequences… Ageing Population (MEDC) Youthful Population (LEDC) Increase in elderly population will put a strain on resources The elderly require special services (e.g. care homes/meals on wheels) and increased levels of care. This will have implications on pensions and housing benefits. This money is likely to be taken from the young (e.g. schools, youth clubs, children’s hospital wards). Youthful Population (LEDC) In rural areas Overgrazing and over cultivation Water, land and air pollution Deforestation and soil erosion In urban areas Overcrowding and growth of shanty towns Traffic congestion In the country as a whole Shortages of resources, food and raw materials Unemployment Lack of money for basic health care and schooling Low living standards Rising crime, huge debts

The Gambia Youthful population case study Using the ‘Ageing and Youthful Populations’ booklet, answer the following question: With reference to a specific case study highlight the responses a country with a youthful population may take (4 marks)

Problems of a youthful population Pressure on housing – not enough housing, people living in slums. This is very common around the big cities (New Delhi), where millions of people live in shanty towns with no running water, roads, sewage of any kind. Pressure on schooling – illiterate population. India’s literacy rate is 60%, Cambodia’s literacy rate is 69% Pressure on food supplies - famine, food distribution difficulties. Natural disasters accentuate this problem e.g. droughts. Pressure on health services – a growth in diseases being spread around and not being dealt with adequately to stop the spread.

Describe this areas population structure? Where in the UK might this be? Eastbourne (retirement mecca on south cost!) If you worked for the council in this area what problems may this structure provide you with?

Two main problems Health care Pensions Provide more health care e.g. retirement homes, hospital beds, more undertakers, etc. Skilled health care workers, e.g. nurses, doctors, etc. Pensions 3 solutions Increase tax – not popular Raise retirement age – not popular Abolish state pensions – not popular

Case study: Italy's Ageing Population Read the newspaper article from the booklet and then answer the questions on the article.

Attempts to solve population problems in MEDCs Higher family allowances Crèches for working mothers Medals for mums

Attempts to solve population problems in LEDCs China’s one child policy Population: 1,330,044,544 (July 2008 est.) Introduced in the 1980s One child or families criticized and fined - forced abortions and sterilizations have been reported. The policy has been quite successful in cities however 80% of China’s population are peasant farmers living in rural areas where families need to be larger to share work load and so that children care for parents when they are old. Reports of infanticide have arisen from the demand to have boys (as the tradition is that when a couple are married, the wife lives with the husband and takes care of his parents). You must be familiar with this case study (the GCSE bite size website is very useful) and be able to describe and explain it. Has it worked?

Attempts to solve population problems in LEDCs Irrigation in Egypt Egypt has a population of 60 million people which live on 99% of the land area. The River Nile makes this possible. Since the 1960s Egypt’s response to population growth has been to increase water supply and expand the area of irrigated farmland. In the 1960s the Aswan Dam was built to control the flow of the Nile and stop annual floods. However, the building of the Dam has brought problems. You must be familiar with this case study and be able to describe and explain it. Has it worked?

Solving population problems in LEDCs Transmigration in Indonesia This case study is NOT a method of birth control! Key questions What is transmigration? Where did people migrate from and to? How did the government encourage people to migrate? What political, environmental and socio-economic problems did this cause? See page 114 in Understanding GCSE Geography (old text book!)

Migration: the movement of people from one place to another to live and work Types of migration Permanent Temporary International Internal Voluntary Forced Rural to Urban Urban to Rural Seasonal Daily Push factors Pull factors Case Studies Movements of people within and into the EU Migrant workers from former colonises moving into EU countries such as North Africans into France. Migrant workers from Eastern European countries moving to the UK Refugees moving into the EU. You need to be able to define what each of these terms mean. TIP: do not use the term in your definition – you will get no marks! You need to know the cause of the migration and the effects (to the migrant, the host country and the country of origin). You must also consider the advantages and disadvantages

Polish and other Eastern Europeans in to the UK: economic migration Causes The enlargement of the EU (8 new countries including Poland) in 2004 allowed workers to gain employment anywhere within the EU. Between 2004 and 2006 427, 095 eastern europeans registered to work in the UK UK attractive to place to work as wages are much higher (bus driver in Poland would earn £330 per month but in the UK they would earn £1427) UK allows unresticted labour market access Characteristics More males than females Mostly aged between 20 and 34 years (economically and reproductively active) Only 3% dependents under 17 (most leave families behind) 30% did not register as became ‘self employed’ Few elderly people as they are less likely to migrate How might this change in population structure effect the shape of Poland’s population pyramid?

Advantages and Disadvantages to Poland: the impacts of economic migration Reduces pressure on jobs and resources e.g. food Loses people of child bearing age (fall in often high birth rate) Migrants develop new skills which they may bring back to their new country Money earned may be sent back to their home country Loses people in the working age group (‘youth drain’) Loses people most likely to have some education and skills (‘brain drain’ not enough qualifies doctors, builders, nurses) Left with an elderly population (high death rate) Increasing dependency on money sent home by workers

Advantages and Disadvantages to the UK: the impacts of economic migration Overcomes labour shortage Businesses can expand and this helps the economy Prepared to do dirty, unskilled jobs that British no longer want to do Prepared to work long hours for low salary (less than minimum wage) Cultural advantages and links Some highly skilled migrants Keep inflation down which means prices do not rise. Immigrants are likely to be the first to be unemployed in a recession and so could claim welfare benefits Perception that the migrants take jobs and cause high unemployment Pressure on housing Racial Tension Schools find it difficult to cope with large numbers of pupils who cannot speak English Rises in council tax

Refugees – Illegal immigrants in to the EU (Italy) Sources (where are they from?) Romania, Albania, Morocco and Ukraine These 4 countries accounted for half the total of illegal immigrants coming to the EU They mainly gain employment in agriculture such as picking fruit. Many of the African migrants are smuggled across to the EU in boats which often become overloaded and sank. They arrive without papers and are at the mercy of gangsters They often sleep rough in over priced and run down accommodation If caught they are detained and issued with deportation orders Often these are not followed and the workers make their back to Southern Italy to work on farms. The problem is bad in Italy because it is the first country they come to from Africa. The economy in the south of Italy depends on agriculture and the African workers are prepared to work for low wages.

Past Exam Paper Questions Give two ways that population structure changes when a country has entered Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model. (2 marks) Compare the shapes of two population pyramids - a typical LEDC and MEDC. (4 marks) Explain how these population pyramids suggest that these countries are in different stages of the Demographic Transition Model. (4 marks) Many MEDCs have an ageing population. Describe how governments are attempting to cope with the problem of an ageing population. (4 marks) Using one or more examples, explain why the population growth of LEDCs is expected to fall. (6 marks) Describe the advantages and disadvantages to a country or region of receiving immigrants. (6 marks)

Past Exam Paper Questions 1. Give two ways that population structure changes when a country has entered Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model. (2 marks) Birth Rate falls below death rate/natural population decrease 2. Compare the shapes of two population pyramids - a typical LEDC and MEDC. (4 marks) Narrow base for LEDC/Tapers in rapidly for LEDC/Short so small life expectancy (opposite for MEDC). 3. Explain how these population pyramids suggest that these countries are in different stages of the Demographic Transition Model. (4 marks) LEDC – wide base indicating high birth rate. High death rate (true pyramid shape/tapers in rapidly) indicating that it might be in stage 2 as it has a large natural increase. Opposite for MEDC. 4. Many MEDCs have an ageing population. Describe how governments are attempting to cope with the problem of an ageing population. (4 marks) Increase Tax/Increasing the pensionable age (from 65 to 68) 5. Using one or more examples, explain why the population growth of LEDCs is expected to fall. (6 marks) China’s one child policy…etc. 6. Describe the advantages and disadvantages to a country or region of receiving immigrants. (6 marks) Advantages – cheap source of labour/cultural exchange’/new skills/more tax paid Disadvantages – racial tension/strain on job, housing and education markets etc.

What the examiner is looking for

7. Many MEDCs have an ageing population 7. Many MEDCs have an ageing population. Describe how governments are attempting to cope with the problem of an ageing population. (6 marks) Level 1 (Basic) 1-2 marks Simple statements listing things that government have done. They have built more care homes. There is an increase in taxation. People have to work longer / older retirement age. Level 2 (Clear) 3-4 marks Linked statements showing some development. People have to work longer so they can go on paying taxes that can be used to pay for increased social service provision. Money is put into care homes rather than into education because there are fewer children.

Level 3 Detailed (5-6 marks) Linked and elaborated statements referring to examples It is estimated that there will be no population growth in China by 2070, South east Asia by 2090 and Latin America by 2100. People who are better educated get better jobs and careers and so do not want to be burdened with large families. Better-educated women are more likely to understand how to use contraceptives effectively / Contraceptives are more readily available and therefore there is less unprotected sex and so fewer children are born. As more careers become available for women they put off having children until later and so there is less opportunity for them to have large families. Improved health care reduces the infant mortality rate. People are therefore more certain that fewer children will die, and so they do not keep trying for children as an insurance to ensure some survive to look after them in old age. Credit China one child policy.

8. Using one or more examples, explain why the population growth of LEDCs is expected to fall. Level 1 Basic (1-2 marks) Simple statements Birth control / improved education / careers for women/ better healthcare. If write about MEDC, Max Level 1 Level 2 Clear (3-4 marks) Linked statements but little elaboration Birth control leads to a decline in the birth rate/ careers for women mean that women marry later/ improved health reduces infant mortality so less need to have many children. If wrong country for one child policy e.g. Japan, remains at Level 2.