Climate change and food security in southern Africa: implications of theoretical development for the promotion of sustainable equitable development Katharine Vincent and Tracy Cull PEGNet Conference 2010: Policies to foster and sustain equitable development in times of crises, Midrand, 2-3 September

Food Security in Southern Africa Regional cereal production projected to exceed consumption requirements and allow for export (largest surpluses in South Africa and Zambia) At a country level deficits faced in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe Localised food shortages from crop failures in southern Malawi, semi-arid areas of central and southern Mozambique, and southern Zimbabwe (requiring external assistance until the next harvest in April 2011) Assessment mechanisms: NVACs, FAO/WFP CFSAM (Mozambique and Zimbabwe)

IPCC Ar4, Ch 11 Rainfall(%)/Temperature changes by end of 21 st Century

DJF JJA Temperature

Rainfall JJA DJF

Food Security Analysis Availability million additional people being at risk of hunger by 2080 (Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007) will lead to increased crop yields at high and mid latitudes, but decreased yields at low latitudes (Hadley Centre) Reductions in arid regions and sub-humid tropics, particularly in Africa A recent meta-analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food insecure regions based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 global climate models shows that South Asia and southern Africa will suffer negative impacts on food crops that are important to food insecure populations, particularly if sufficient adaptation measures are not adopted (Lobell et al. 2008).

Food Security Analysis Stability adequacy of food supplies “at all times” and to the potential for losing access to the resources needed to consume adequate food Utilisation How well food can be utilised: harder to absorb the nutritional content if you are ill Also storage implications (pest infestations) Access to food Market, political conditions.

Entitlement Approach Food can be available through means other than in-country production Entitlements based on: -Production (livelihoods profile of household) -Labour (landless labourers lose income source) -Trade (reduced costs for assets when market is flooded) -Transfers (gifts and donations less likely under covariate risks)

Food Systems Approach Food systems as social-ecological systems Multiple (and often interacting) stresses: HIV/AIDS Governance Biofuels Market fluctuations (food price crisis of 2008) Adopted by several international science programmes, e.g. GECAFS (IGBP/IHDP/WCRP joint programme) Context-specific so empirical validation must take place

A Selection of Climate Change and Food Security Initiatives in Southern Africa Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) in Multiple Regions and Sectors Capacity Strengthening of Least Developed Countries for Adaptation to Climate Change (CLACC) Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (Southern Africa) (GECAFS-SAF) International Council for Science – Regional Office for Africa (ICSU – ROA) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) International Institute for Environment and Development: Climate Change Group (IIED) The International Center for Water Economics and Governance in Africa (IWEGA) Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP) Regional Hunger and Vulnerability Programme (RHVP) Southern Africa Regional Poverty Network (SARPN) Southern African Development Community Regional Vulnerability Assessment Committee (SADC-RVAC) Southern African Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI)

Policy Implications for Sustainable, Equitable Development Given future projections, for how long should southern African countries continue to invest in agriculture? What form should those investments take? Need to improve adaptation in food systems – Improved early warning / seasonal forecasts – Integration of climate change in food security monitoring – (both require capacity building and institutional strengthening)