Scenario Analysis costs per acre for various practices estimate each fully applied practice for N or P then combine for N or P to reach 20 or 45% finally,

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Presentation transcript:

Scenario Analysis costs per acre for various practices estimate each fully applied practice for N or P then combine for N or P to reach 20 or 45% finally, combine N and P scenarios together

Nitrogen costs per acre Practice/ScenarioCost Per Acre Notes Reducing N rate from background to the MRTN (10% of acres) -$8Reduce N rates (20 pounds) Nitrification inhibitor with all fall applied fertilizer on tile- drained corn acres $7Cost of inhibitor Split (50%) fall and spring (50%) on tile-drained corn acres $17Additional field pass, switch to N solutions Fall to spring on tile-drained corn acres $18Switch to N solutions, higher ammonia price, additional application costs Cover crops on all corn/soybean tile-drained acres $29Aerial applications of cereal rye Cover crops on all corn/soybean non-tiled acres $29Aerial applications of cereal rye Bioreactors on 50% of tile-drained land $17Upfront costs of $133 per acre Wetlands on 25% of tile-drained land $605% of farmland out of production Major cost is land ($11,000) Buffers on all applicable crop land (reduction only for water that interacts with active area) $294 per buffer acre Land costs plus $50 planting, $10 yearly maintenance Perennial/energy crops equal to pasture/hay acreage from 1987 $86Less profit compared to corn-soybean rotation Perennial/energy crops on 10% of tile-drained land $86Less profit compared to corn-soybean rotation Edge-of- field Land use change In-field

Phosphorus costs per acre Practice/ScenarioCost Per Acre Notes Reduce tillage -$16Eliminate one pass of heavy equipment, no change in yield No P fertilizer on 12.5 million ac of CS fields with soil test P above maintenance level for average of 6 years -$15Cost of six years of P fertilizer averaged over 20 years. Cover crops on corn/soybean tile-drained acres $29Aerial applications of cereal rye Cover crops on corn/soybean non-tiled acres $29Aerial applications of cereal rye Bioreactors on 50% of tile-drained land $17Upfront costs of $133 per acre Wetlands on 25% of tile-drained land $605% of farmland out of production Major cost is land ($11,000) Buffers on all applicable crop land (reduction only for water that interacts with active area) $294 per buffer acre Land costs plus $50 planting, $10 yearly maintenance Perennial/energy crops equal to pasture/hay acreage from 1987 $86Less profit compared to corn-soybean rotation Perennial/energy crops on 10% of tile-drained land $86Less profit compared to corn-soybean rotation Edge-of- field Land use change In-field

Example Statewide Results for N Practice/ScenarioNitrate- N reduction per acre (%) Nitrate- N reduced (million lb N) Nitrate-N Reduction % (from baseline) Cost ($/lb N removed) Baseline410 Reducing N rate from background to the MRTN (10% of acres) Nitrification inhibitor with all fall applied fertilizer on tile-drained corn acres Split (50%) fall and spring (50%) on tile-drained corn acres 7.5 to Fall to spring on tile-drained corn acres 15 to Cover crops on all corn/soybean tile-drained acres Cover crops on all corn/soybean non-tiled acres Bioreactors on 50% of tile-drained land Wetlands on 25% of tile-drained land Buffers on all applicable crop land (reduction only for water that interacts with active area) Perennial/energy crops equal to pasture/hay acreage from Perennial/energy crops on 10% of tile-drained land Point source reduction to 10 mg nitrate-N/L Point source reduction in N due to biological nutrient removal for P Point source Edge-of- field Land use change In-field

Example Statewide N Scenarios NameCombined Practices and/or Scenarios Nitrate-N (% reduction) Total P (% reduction) Cost of N Reduction ($/lb) Annualized Costs (million $/year) N1MRTN rate, all spring N application, cover crops 70% tile-drained & 40% non-tiled, bioreactors 50%, wetlands 25%, all ag streams have buffers N2MRTN rate, all spring N application, cover crops 100% tile-drained & 70% non-tiled, bioreactors 50%, perennial crops non-tiled, point source to 10 mg nitrate-N/L N3MRTN rate, cover crops 100% tile- drained & 65% non-tiled, wetlands 25%, perennial crops non-tiled, all ag streams have buffers, point source to 10 mg nitrate-N/L N4MRTN rate, all spring N application, cover crops 5% tile-drained, bioreactors 50% N5MRTN rate, cover crops 35% tile- drained, bioreactors 50% N6MRTN rate, cover crops 75% tile- drained, 50% non-tiled

Example Statewide Results for P Practice/ScenarioTotal P reduction per acre (%) Total P reduced (million lb P) Total P Reduction % (from baseline) Cost ($/lb P removed) Baseline37.5 Convert 1.8 million acres of conventional till eroding >T to reduced, mulch or no-till P rate reduction on fields with soil test P above the recommended maintenance level Cover crops on all corn/soybean acres Cover crops on 1.6 million acres eroding>T currently in reduced, mulch or no-till Wetlands on 25% of tile-drained land Buffers on all applicable crop land Perennial/energy crops equal to pasture/hay acreage from Perennial/energy crops on 1.6 million acres>T currently in reduced, mulch or no-till Perennial/energy crops on 10% of tile- drained land Point source reduction to 1.0 mg total P/L (majors only) Point source Edge- of-field Land use change In-field USLE method

Example Statewide P Scenarios NameCombined Practices and/or Scenarios Nitrate-N (% reduction) Total P (% reduction) Cost of P Reduction ($/lb) Annualized Costs (million $/year) P1No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, buffers on all applicable lands, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L P2No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on all CS, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L P3No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on 87.5% of CS, buffers on all applicable lands, perennial crops on 1.6 million ac >T, and 0.9 million additional ac P4No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, buffers on 80% of all applicable land P5No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L on 45% of discharge P6No P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on 1.6 million ac eroding >T and 40% of all other CS

Example Statewide N & P Scenarios NameCombined Practices and/or Scenarios Nitrate-N (% reduction) Total P (% reduction) Cost of Reduction ($/lb) Annualized Costs (million $/year) NP1 MRTN, fall to spring, bioreactors 50%, wetlands 25%, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, buffers on all applicable lands, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L and 10 mg nitrate-N/L 3545**289 NP2 MRTN, fall to spring, bioreactors 50%, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on all CS, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L and 10 mg nitrate-N/L 45 **716 NP3 MRTN, fall to spring, bioreactors 15%, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on 87.5% of CS, buffers on all applicable lands, perennial crops on 1.6 million ac >T, and 0.9 million additional ac. 45 **697 NP4 MRTN, fall to spring N, bioreactors 35%, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, buffers on 80% of all applicable land 20 ** -46 NP5 MRTN, fall to spring N, bioreactors 30%, wetlands 15%, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, point source to 1.0 mg TP/L and 10 mg nitrate-N/L on 45% of discharge 20 ** -28 NP6 MRTN, fall to spring N, no P fert. on 12.5 million ac above STP maintenance, reduced till on 1.8 million ac conv. till eroding > T, cover crops on 1.6 million ac eroding >T and 40% of all other CS 2420** 150

Agriculture Subcommittee Survey PracticeMedian adoption rate (%) N reduction (million lb N) P reduction (million lb P) Timing change (either fall to spring or fall/spring/side dress) Cover crops – tile drained corn and soybean acres Ephemeral gulley control65?? Buffers on ag streams Wetlands on tile drained acres10110 No P fertilizers with STP above maintenance No manure application on frozen ground 93?? Convert 1.8 million acres of conventional till eroding > T to reduced, mulch, or no till Summed60 (15%)5.5 (15%)