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Presentation transcript:

NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings Vancouver, BC August 2, 2010 Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

DATA Based on all NHL regular season shots and – Excludes penalty shots, empty net shots, shootouts Spatial mapping of probability of a goal Offensive Zone: Blue line to Goal line – [Blue line at left, Goal at Right] Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

League Average (Darker is higher) Blue Line Goal Line GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Goal probability maps Maps are differences from league-wide average probability of a goal at a given location – Red above average (Good for shooters) – Blue below average (Good for goalies) – White is league average Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Difference from League Average for each of the 5 holes/zones Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Forwards Red is above average (GOOD) Blue is below average (BAD) Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Goalies Red is above average (BAD) Blue is below average (GOOD) Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Martin Broudeur – Goalie – New Jersey Devils GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL