Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment Institute United Nations Foundation and German NGO Forum International Conference Sustainable Bioenergy: Challenges and Opportunities Bonn, Germany, October 2006 Import Substitution and Export Potential for Biofuels Trade: the case of ethanol from sugarcane and sweet sorghum EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa

Overview of Presentation s Energy-Environment-Development Driving Forces s Productive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghum s Focus on southern Africa (SADC) s Global market shares s Capacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scale s Geographic Information Systems Analysis – potential s Scenarios for future production and blending s Export potential s CARENSA: an International Network/Partnership s North-South-South collaboration: research and analysis, technology transfer, capacity-building, policy dialogue

Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for biofuels development and North-South-South Collaboration s Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods s Enhancing the role of women as community leaders s Relieving resource pressures and stresses s Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration s Energy security: local – regional – global s Rural health issues - indoor air s Urban health issues – lead (in Africa), air quality s future competitiveness of agro-industries s Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits s Developing countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) s Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market s Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

Comparison of biofuel yields Crop Seed yield (t/ha) Crop yield (t/ha) Biofuel yield (litre/ha) Energy yield (GJ/ha) Sugarcane (juice) Palm oil Sweet sorghum Maize Jatropha Rapeseed Soybean

A typology of liquid biofuels (Fulton, UNEP, 2006) FuelFeedstock Regions where currently produced GHG reduction impacts v. petroleum fuel Costs Biofuels yield per hectare of land Land types Ethanol Grains (wheat, maize) US, Europe, China low- moderate moderate croplands Ethanol Sugar cane Brazil, India, Thailand highlowhighcroplands Ethanol biomass (cellulose) nonehigh croplands, marginal lands Biodiesel (FAME) oil seeds (rape, soy) US, Europe moderate lowcroplands Biodiesel (FAME) Palm oil, jatropha South/SE Asia, Africa Moderate- high low- moderate Moderate- high Coastal (palm)/vari ous (jat.) Biodiesel (BTL) biomassnonehigh croplands, marginal lands

GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

Cost Per Tonne of CO 2 Reduction is Currently Lowest in Brazil – Costs in IEA Countries are High (based on $30/bbl oil) Source: IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective

Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004

Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending **10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl **Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!

Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade barriers) for bio-ethanol in the medium-term ( ) Brazil: net exporter U.S.: net importer Other N & S America: self-sufficient China: net importer India: self-sufficient SE Asia: net exporter EU: net importer Western Africa: self-sufficient Southern and Eastern Africa: net exporter

Land suitability for high input levels: Sweet Sorghum production in Africa Source: FAO

Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa

Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand

Potential supply for export (million litres)

Import Duties on Ethanol are High in Many IEA Countries Note: No duties in Japan and New Zealand

Some concluding thoughts Significant potential for global biofuels expansion to meet both development and environment goals It is neither necessary nor desirable to wait for next generation biofuels; excellent opportunities, particularly in bio-ethanol, are available now North-South and South-South cooperation is needed to develop the market Subsidies for inefficient biofuels (e.g. rapeseed in Germany and corn in U.S.) are harmful to the global economy AND to the environment: - stifles innovation - creates trade barriers - blocks important development opportunities for least developed countries - prevents implementation of cost-effective climate strategies - contributes to continuing fossil fuel dependence - endangers global peace and security The 100 billion USD spent annually in the OECD in direct agricultural subsidies is also damaging to development and trade objectives

Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA) Funding: European Commission Fifth Framework Research Programme (EC FP5) SEI, Stockholm Environment Institute (SCIENTIFIC COORDINATOR) IC, Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, UK UM, University of Mauritius, Chemical and Sugar Eng. Dept. UND, University of Natal, Durban, South Africa AUA, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece CIRPS, Interuniversity Research Centre on Sustainable Development, Italy BUN, Biomass Users Network, Zimbabwe CEEEZ, Centre for Energy, Environment, and Engineering, Zambia ISO, International Sugar Organisation FAO, Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), United Nations WII, Winrock International India CENBIO, National Reference Centre for Biomass, Brazil UNICAMP, University of Campinas SADC, Southern African Development Community EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General

Thanks to: UN Foundation and German NGO Forum AND to our International Partners: EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General