Francis X. Johnson Senior Research Fellow, Energy and Climate Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Sida / SEI - Climate for Development Seminar Stockholm, March Bio-resources for Development in a Changing Climate: A review of issues, progress, and plans

s: Beijer Institute studies on fuel wood in Africa 1980s: cookstoves, appropriate technology 1980s-90s: Energy Modelling/Analysis (LEAP, other tools) 1990s: Biomass utilisation technology/implementation studies : Study on energy from sugar cane, Luena, Zambia : World Bank study-Advancing Modern Bioenergy : bioenergy research networks, integrated assessment SEI historical highlights on biomass and bioenergy Outline of the Talk 1.Introduction 2.Characteristics and Potential for Biofuels (Bio-resources) 3.Review and Examples of Activities and Deliverables 4.Review of Progress 5.Plans for remainder of programme

Bioenergy-Climate-Development driving forces s Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods s Relieving resource pressures and stresses s Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration s Energy security: local – regional – global s Rural health issues - indoor air s Urban health issues – lead, air quality s future competitiveness of agro-industries s Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits s Carbon Finance opportunities for LDCs, including CDM s Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market s Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

Share of biomass in global energy consumption Source: IEA and UNDP,

Distribution of biomass used globally for energy by type and end-use (total global energy use estimated at 450 EJ) Source: IEA/WEA 2007

Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains low in most world regions

Land area per capita by type and major countries or regions Source: FAOSTAT, 2008

The Role of modern bioenergy Modern bioenergy will play a leading role in the global transition to clean and sustainable energy due to two decisive advantages over other renewables: (1)Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it can be drawn on at any time, in sharp contrast to daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and small hydro sources, whose contributions are all constrained by the high costs of energy storage. (2)Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e. energy carriers, for modern economies: electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar, wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity and in some cases heat. Modern bioenergy has several other advantages over other energy resources: provides rural jobs and income to people who grow or harvest the bioenergy resources; bioenergy is more labour-intensive than other energy resources; increases profitability in the agriculture, food-processing and forestry sectors. Biomass residues and wastes--often with substantial disposal costs--can instead be converted to energy for sale or for internal use to reduce energy bills; helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees, shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils, with energy production and sales as a valuable bonus;

1. Local use of forest and agricultural residues 2.Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of residues, and energy efficiency 3.Infrastructure development 4.National market development through supportive policies and incentives 5.Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large scale utilization, transport logistics 6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs 7. Global commodity market The Bioenergy Transition: the transformation of biomass from a predominantly local resource into a strategic, multi-purpose, multi- product international commodity

Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials, theoretical biofuel demands and production capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world regions (Areas of circles depict approximate comparative scales)

FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCE Estimated Energy output per unit of fossil fuel input Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute, ETHANOLBIODIESEL

1.Stakeholder Events and Expert Consultations a)FAO consultations + SOA: bioenergy, food security, and climate b)Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Consultations c)Organisation of Side Events: WIREC, Bali-COP 2.Capacity-Building and Research Networks a)Southern African Biofuels Association (SABA) b)South Asia (SAARC) Biofuels Strategy c)LDC Implementation Issues - EU Biofuels Sustainability Criteria 3.Regional Assessments a)SADC region – sugar cane b)Food-feed-fuel: MERCOSUR/Uruguay – soybeans c)Bioenergy Best practice, South-South technology transfer 4.Local case studies a)Tanzania – land use impacts b)Mozambique – agricultural development - livelihoods c)Case study 3: HH-use of ethanol stoves, location to be finalised Summary of activities & deliverables (Tasks 3.1 & 3.3)

North-South-South Forum on Biofuels, Climate and Sustainable Development Official Side Event Washington International Renewable Energy Conference Thursday 6 March 2008, 15:00; Room 149 A Introductory remarks: Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Moderator: Suzanne Hunt, Worldwatch Institute Panellists: Sergio Trindade, SE2T International, NY, USA Li Junfeng, Deputy Director, Energy Research Institute (ERI), China Prof. Roberto Moreira, National Reference Centre for Biomass, Brazil Gail Karlsson, Energia Lawrence Agbemabiese, UNEP-DTIE Ishmael Edjekumhene, KITE, Ghana

Key provisions of EU Renewable Energy Directive related to biofuels Binding 10% share of renewable fuels for transport Biofuels must meet sustainability criteria to qualify Minimum GHG reduction – 35%, increasing to 50% in 2017 Establishes “no-go” areas: undisturbed forests, nature reserves, bio-diverse grasslands, wetlands Biofuels from wastes or lignocellulosics emphasised Methodology Equation + Default values for GHG emissions Incentives for biofuels from degraded lands Member States reporting requirements, COM updates Indirect land use change (ILUC) NOT included, COM to issue report on methodologies for ILUC in 2010

What implications for Least Developed Countries? Large potential market provides a major opportunity Meeting GHG criteria will generally not be a problem, but tracking, data collection, analysis could be Land availability vs. land tenure vs. changing land values Definition of grasslands Degraded lands - given low cost of land in general for foreign investors, few incentives to use it Co-products allocation should be developed lower energy intensity of agriculture should be an advantage Measurement, monitoring, compliance are the key issues for LDC producers – missing from Directive

Potentially suitable and available land for sugar cane in southern Africa (1000 ha) Comparison to existing cane cultivation Source: Watson, H., Johnson, F.X. et al 2008

Sugar Cane Harvesting is semi-mechanised

Burning prior to harvest still common in Africa (to remove pests and extraneous matter) Phase-out of burning would lead to mechanisation

Identifying key land use issues for Tanzania case study

Mozambique Case Study: analysing scale, livelihoods Large Scale 1.Sugarcane to EtOH 2.Palm / Soy Biodiesel Factory-owned estate Very competitive globally Lower Value Added to Local Communities *lowest risk Export potential Small-holder led Higher cost base Less globally competitive Higher Value Added to Local Communities *moderate risk Export potential Small Scale 1.Sweet Sorghum – micro-distillery 2.Woodlot gasification elec. Multi-product or multi-crop e.g. sweet sorghum Economics Uncertain Complex- Value Added to Local Communities *high risk Local Markets Social Issues Crop not well characterised Single Bioenergy Product e.g. multi-species woodlot Value Added to Local Communities *high risk Complex food- fuel-cash-crop interactions SOURCE: Woods, J. Foucs 14: IFPRI, 2006

Soybean equivalent exports to EU ( )

Soybean hectares/exports to EU by use ( )

Jatropha plantation and processing in Tanzania

Jatropha processing, by-products, filtering, end-use

Ethanol for cooking stoves

Timing for Completion of analyses/studies Regional Assessments April: SADC region – sugar cane June: Bioenergy best practice, S-S Tech Transfer Aug: Food-feed-fuel: soy - MERCOSUR/Uruguay Local or sub-regional case studies Oct: Tanzania – land use impacts Nov: Mozambique– agric. development, livelihoods Dec: Case study 3: HH-ethanol stoves, location TBD

Thanks for your attention!

Equation for calculating GHG emissions