Poverty and inequality in London: What difference will the coalition's social policies make? Peter Kenway

London Poverty Profile 2009 How can London have highest poverty rate – and where is it? High rates of poverty and worklessness – but Inner  and Outer  over time Average rates of attainment for those with lowest grades – but   in Inner and Outer (best region at age 16) V. high temp. accommodation rates – but Haringey 10X Richmond Most unequal region so ‘London’ rarely makes sense – but 32 boroughs is too many Use the five economic sub-regions where possible

Five sub-regions

Sixteen indicator picture: inner

Sixteen indicator picture: outer

Recession hit east more than inner JSA, unemployment, mortgage and landlord repossessions

Problems of perception Inner/outer misleads – deepest problems still in inner, concentrated in Inner E Inner W faces problems e.g. housing, low paid jobs, but not comparable with Inner E 2010 ‘update’ highlights this: Inner W hit the least; Outer E resembles Inner E; problems e.g. re housing in Outer W. Inner E more in common with Outer E than Inner W – but East/West also misleads Inner W home to many national institutions – a bubble in a bubble?

Three year child poverty rates/shares How do inner/outer and in-work/out-of-work interact?

Accounting for ∆ child poverty rate over time For inner (outer) in terms of in- and non-work poverty rates: change in in-work rate [ ∆ r w.s w ] + change in non-work rate [ ∆ r n.(1-s w )] + effect of change in work share [(r* w -r* n ). ∆ s w ] where: r w /r n in/non-work rates; (1-s w ) % workless h’holds; * t=2 For London in terms of inner and outer poverty rates: change in inner rate [ ∆ R i.S i ] + change in outer rate [ ∆ R o.(1-S i )] + effect of change in inner share [(R* i -R* o ). ∆ S i ] where: R i /R o inner/outer rates; S i % in inner; * t=2 (choices about precise form of decomposition)

Child poverty over time by inner/outer/all Two effects dominate (almost cancelling at London level) fall in inner percentage in workless households increase in outer in-work poverty rate

Effects of the HB cap and 30% LHA limit Unclear interaction with the inner/outer in-work/out-of-work £pw: Inner West is outlier; Inner East in the pack % affected: all in pack – substantial majority everywhere Exodus from the Inner West - but no simple exodus to suburbs % LHA tenants affectedAv. weekly amount Inner East76%£16.60 Outer East70%£10.40 Outer South73%£11.80 Outer West80%£16.80 Inner West80%£43.90

Conclusions Even before the coalition’s social policies take effect: Deepening divide between the two parts of Inner Outer as a whole becoming more like Inner as a whole – but no less divided? Hypotheses re coalition policies: 1. Deepen the changes that have been taking place in Inner and esp. Inner West 2. Accelerate/initiate change in many parts of Outer But is this sustainable? Inner West has second highest number of low paid jobs (2008) of five sub-regions – 22% of the total Time and cost of public transport for travel to low paid jobs will grow in importance