Denise Reed Pontchartrain Institute University of New Orleans

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Presentation transcript:

Denise Reed Pontchartrain Institute University of New Orleans

Projected Coastal Louisiana Trends: 1956-2050 Land Loss 1956-2000 Projected Land Loss 2000-2050 Land Gain 1956-2000 Projected Land Gain 2000-2050 Land Water 1956 – 2000 1525 sq. mi. of coastal landscape lost average rate 35 sq.mi./yr. for 44 years 2000 – 2050 Projected loss - another 513 square miles

The Past

Natural cycles 20th century Time Land Area Delta building - River deposition Delta loss - subsidence, storms Rapid land loss Land Area Limited land building Time

+ = Higher relative water levels Natural Subsidence Sea-Level Rise Natural Subsidence + = Higher relative water levels Existing marshes must build up to survive

Can marshes keep pace with subsidence and sea-level rise?

Marsh Building Processes DeLaune et al. 1990

How do marshes build without sediments from the river? Storms! Increase water levels and mobilize sediment

Cahoon et al., 1995

Hurricane Dolly 22 August 1996 Fourchon 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 (m above local datum) Tide Sediment Deposition (g/cm2/day) 0.0006 0.0004 0.0002 5/7/96 5/21/96 6/4/96 6/18/96 7/2/96 7/16/96 7/30/96 8/13/96 8/27/96 Hurricane Dolly 22 August 1996 Date

Hurricane Lilli 2002 Reed et al., 2006

How Much Sediment for Maintenance? Katrina and Rita estimated to have delivered 130 million tonnes (Turner et al., 2006)

River levees stop restrict delta building to a few areas Regular sediment supply from the river to existing marshes is eliminated. Storm reworking is their only source of sediment. River levees stop restrict delta building to a few areas

“MRGO” Houma Navigation Channel Navigation Channels

Pipeline Canals

Solutions? Maintain what we have Rebuild what we’ve lost

Continuing Current Management

Achieving Sustainability

“Prevent loss of sediments into the deep Gulf”

Coast 2050

“..large-scale concepts that could provide significant long-term ecosystem restoration benefits”

Average annual loss to Gulf ~120 million tons of sediment Photo taken by NASA April 29, 2008

21st Century Sea level rise accelerates…. Storm impacts increase…. Using the River gives Coastal Louisiana a fighting chance

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