Update: Renewable Energy and Storage Jay Apt Tepper School of Business and Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University May 16, 2011

Ten out sixteen of CEDM’s projects are on electricity related issues 2

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The RenewElec Project

Apr 2010 Oct 2010 Apr 2011 Oct 2011 Apr 2012 Oct 2012 Apr 2013 Review Prior Studies Prepare Working Papers Initial framing meetings (project team) Cross check meetings (project team) 1 st integration & Policy Workshop2 nd integration & Policy Workshop Begin to frame Continue to revise final monograph Use the simulation models to quantify alternative scenarios, using cost, reliability, etc. First round of largely qualitative policy briefings Combine Workshop and Working Papers into a 1 st Set of Policy Guidance & Briefing Materials Produce a more quantitatively informed set of policy guidance materials and briefing documents. Distribute decision tools to key decision makers. Prepare final draft version of project monograph and distribute it widely Arrange for formal publication of the project monograph Continue to brief the findings widely to key decision makers Develop a family of stochastic simulation models to assess the interaction of elements of different integrated systems 5

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Current projects - 1 Network reconfiguration to integrate solar/wind –Decision Makers: LSEs, PUCs Public engagement for EGS –Decision Makers: EGS developers, permitting agencies, public Grid stability with large-scale wind –Decision Makers: RTOs, wind developers Can demand-side management buffer wind? –Decision Makers: utilities, FERC, RTOs Hurricane risk to offshore wind plants –Decision Makers: wind developers, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management (OEMM), FERC Solar-thermal integration cost differences from PV –Decision Makers: state legislatures, LSEs The costs of forecast uncertainty –Decision Makers: RTOs, LSEs, wind/solar developers 7

Current projects - 2 Balancing area consolidation –Decision Makers: FERC, LSEs, RTOs, wind developers Reserve requirements (using non-Gaussian statistics) –Decision Makers: NERC, FERC, RTOs Environmental implications of coal ramping to follow wind –Decision Makers: EPA, FERC, PUCs Integrated solar – natural gas plants –Decision Makers: state legislatures, LSEs G2V –Decision Makers: LSEs, RTOs, FERC, auto makers Decommissioning requirements –Decision Makers: PUCs, legislatures, wind/solar developers 8

Distribution grid reconfiguration reduces power losses and helps integrate renewables Colleen Horin 9

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Does adding wind farms fix intermittency? 11

Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms … has diminishing returns Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants. Energy Policy, (8):

2008 and 2009

14 Operating Solar PV Units > 5 MW

15 Comparison of wind and solar PV Solar PV Wind Source: CEIC Working Paper CEIC-07-12, available at

16 We have very new data showing that Solar thermal has substantially better intermittency characteristics than PV. Colleen Horin is going to quantify the integration costs savings that gives.

Enhanced Geothermal - Enes Hoşgör 17

The 2% recoverable EGS heat-in-place resource estimates are 2,800 times the 2005 total US energy consumption * 18

The EGS resources are heterogeneously distributed 19

The damage map shows where EGS activity can raise public concerns 20 The regions correspond to the high EGS potential regions in purple color in the MIT/Google map.

AltaRock is preparing to drill near Bend, OR * The map corresponds to the high EGS region in purple in Oregon from the MIT/Google map. DEL Map

Only a small portion of locations involve high DEL and number of injuries 22

EGS can be deployed in many areas in the US… …if geothermal power companies and regulatory bodies cooperate with the public to select socially acceptable sites.

Energy storage is used only to smooth the sharpest wind fluctuations Eric Hittinger Wind Farm Output Output After Battery “Smoothing” 24

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Thank you. Jay Apt 26