FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.metafuture.org.

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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis

Presentation transcript:

FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University,

Six Pillars of Foresight Mapping the future Anticipating the future Timing the future Deepening the future Creating alternatives Transforming the future

DEEPENING THE FUTURE Causal layered analysis

Litany: - visible - disconnected news events Systemic: - social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes Discourses: - stakeholders - ideologies - worldviews Myths-metaphors: - stories - legends - myths of trauma and transcendence

Causal Layered Analysis Litany Social causes Worldview Myth Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions STEEP analysis Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview Emotional, images or deep meanings Public Unconscious Superficial Deep Meaning

Causal Layered Analysis LevelIssue / ProblemSolutionWho is responsible to fix it Source Litany (Visible) Problem seems too difficult to solve Short term approaches Governments / I cant do anything about it Television/ Newspapers Systemic (Causes) Problem because of short term historical factors or it is a process or system issue Integrated approaches – systemic solutions Partnerships between sectors of society – Government plus industries Policy Journals, editorials Worldview Constituted by frame of analysis, deep structures of belief & assumption Transform, rethink self and others, change paradigm Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant language Peripheral journals, Myth / Metaphor Constituted core myths / stories Alternative storiesCollective unconscious often guided by visions Work of artists, visionaries,

“real” “imagined” TIME Short term Long term REALITYREALITY Litany Social system & structure Worldview Myth & Metaphor CLA

Unofficial Official management Employees LONGTERMLONGTERM Stakeholders CLA - Stakeholders

Feminist Green Left conservative LONGTERMLONGTERM Ideologies CLA - Ideologies

West Islamic Indigenous Confucian LONGTERMLONGTERM Worldviews CLA - Worldviews

CLA - Epistemes Ancient Pre-modern Modern Post-modern LONGTERMLONGTERM Conventional Epistemes

METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE

CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX Litany Social causes Worldview Myth Spaceship Earth (Technology) Collapse (Worst case) Modernist (Business as usual) Gaia (Ecological) Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 1Scenario 4