An Integrated Analysis of Ecology, Land use and Land Cover Dynamics in Eastern Amazonia Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia

Analysis of land use/cover in old and recent agriculture frontiers Proposal of Integrative Studies – Sustainable territory

Macrozoneamento Ambiental do Estado do Pará (Sectam/PA, 2000). Áreas protegidasÁreas de cobertura florestal intacta Áreas de baixa antropização e uso recente Áreas de alta antropização e uso antigo

Evolution of deforestation in Marabá-Pará Projeto GEOMA: Modelagem de Uso da Terra e Dinâmica Populacional

Evolution of Deforestation Total Desflorestamento (10 3 ha) 1975 – 1978 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 1978 – 1991 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 1991 – 1994 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 1994 – 1997 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 1997 – 2000 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 2000 – 2001 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 2001 – 2002 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) 2002 – 2003 (10 3 ha.Ano -1 ) ,4 22,2 17,1 28,5 32,9 36,5 27,4 46,

Desflorestamento até 1997 Incremento Floresta Não-Floresta Nuvem Desflorestamento 1997 : ~ ha 2000 : ~ ha Prodes/Inpe Estimativa do desflorestamento: Área entre os rios Iriri e Xingú e retas traçadas ortogonalmente Frente do Iriri

Rio IririRio Xingú Frente do Iriri Desflorestamento 2000 : ~ ha 2001 : ~ ha Prodes/INPE Desflorestamento até 2000 Incremento Floresta Não-Floresta Nuvem

Desflorestamento 2002 : ~ ha 2003 : ~ ha Prodes/INPE Desflorestamento até 2002 Incremento Floresta Não-Floresta Nuvem

Model of Sustainable Use of Amazonian Territory Model of sustainable occupation that maintains ecological and biodiversity processes and also allows the economic and social development of the region.

Which information are necessary ?

Environmental data Land use Biodiversity distribution Geology and Geomorphology Climate Vegetation, etc... Socio-Economical Data Population Offer and use of natural resources Patterns and economical trends Protected Areas Infrastructure and development plans Etc...

What is the structure of a sustainable territory? Conservation units (UCs) in strategic locations. Ecological Corridors connecting the UCs by Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs) and Legal Reserves (RLs). Areas for economic ativities in appropriate and strategic locations.

How to analyse and integrate these information?

Geographical Information Systems Overposing Simulation Construction of Scenaries Critical Analysis by social actors Group meetings (reuniões participativas)

The structure of the territory determines the actions to be taken

Matrix Mancha Corridor NEW AGRICULTURE FRONTIER

Matrix Mancha Corridor OLD AGRICULTURE FRONTIER

Differences in the landscape structure influences the strategies of development and conservation planning StructureOld frontier regionsRecent frontier regions MatrixChangeMantain Mancha Increase Stabilize or reduce Corridor Expand/ Maximize impacts Reduce/ Minimize impacts

A Science Plan for Sustainable Territories in Amazonia

Research Program and Public Policies – to establish sustainable territories in Amazonia There is a logical ccupation plan of the Amazon region and an enormous potential of reserach programs very well structured as LBA and GEOMA in the context of more transversalidade of the government actions, related to establish sustainable territories.

Considerations 1. The regions subjected to greater impacts that needs PP in Amazon are those under strong and decisive pression of fronts of agricultural, logging and mining expansion. 2. In the case of Para, the west part is more critical (BR 163) but other areas less visible are also under great logging and mining pressure (Itaituba, Aveiro e Juruti).

3. The investiments for Pará and region are centred in ZEE, BR-163, and deforestation control and monitoring. To consolidate these iniciatives these research programs have an importante role to demonstrate scientifically the modifications that occur related to land speculation, land use change, social and landscape changes in large scale. 4. In west Para there are local focus of great ecological and socioenvironmental importance that needs urgentt scientific knowledge to guide the territory planning (ordenamento territorial).

Some of these focus are: - Terra do Meio; - Norte da Transamazônica e margem esquerda do Amazonas; - Calha Norte (Prainha, Monte Alegre, Alenquer, Oriximiná e Óbidos); Cabeceirasd do rio Arapiuns (Juruti because of soybean and mining by ALCOA that can reach half of the territory) connecting Aveiro and Itaituba; - BR-163 Apuí, and other areas in Amazonas state

Challenges How to articulate interdisciplinaries programs to be the most important tool for the government in the analysis of the ecological and socio economics dynamics of a region under the most critical and violent pression of occupation? Can we provide tools (maps, sattelite images) using the best/modern technics for diagnostics that can be used by the government and society to urgent decision making? WHAT WE NEED? Resources and mechanisms of elasticity of research teams and mainly a total envolvement of those teams with institutions that are discussing PP for the region. To establish credibility and legitimity and consolidate dialogues between researchers, decision makers and social actors.

Ways of acting Construct an institucional network and alocate a great effort in scientific knowledge generation; Construct an agenda with the main government plans and actions, allocate researchers and collaborators to develop a good research plan. Provide information and tools (maps, sattelite images) for discussing local and regional strategies for territory planning;

The importance of this proposal The strategy of the proposal is focused in territories; Integrated approach that makes possible replicability; A Science Plan based in the reality; Allows to develop advanced instruments of analysis and also reviews scientific theories; Type of methodology is appropriate to develop and predict scenaries; Allows integration between research groups and projects.