1 Alternative Energy Strategies Transitions to renewables and supply security Philip Peck IIIEE at Lund University, Sweden II Energy Club meeting, Minsk, Belarus, 11 March 2010

Peck, March Idea generation – thought provocation Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift a national energy mix ?  Rapidly?  In several sectors? Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas?  Example 1 – Mobilising biomass resources at large scale  Example 2 – Looking for opportunities for ‘cleaner’ fossil fuel systems

Peck, March Energy security I... (my view...) Secure fuel supply from diverse sources: to ensure that there is sufficient fuel to meet demand, and that there are alternative fuel sources if one fails Sufficient amounts of generation or supply to compensate for unforeseen plant failures Diverse means of generation: to provide security against any fuel shortages and generic faults in one particular form of generation

Peck, March Energy security II... (my view...) Reliable energy infrastructure: to ensure that energy is transported to the point of use effectively Flexibility in use: the ability to reduce demand if necessary, or to use an alternative form of energy Maximum energy efficiency at point of use eg buildings, vehicles and appliances

5 Shift an energy mix? Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift an energy mix ?

Peck, March Decentralized CHP (orange). Wind mill park (green). Centralized CHP (red) Denmark Denmark 2005

Peck, March Denmark... Dramatic shift 1988  Decentralised CHP in the West Danish power grid150MW  Total wind 100 MW  Decentralised CHP 1600 MW  Wind 3125 MW, 18.5% electricity supply  Wind 3125 MW, 19.7% supply. Driven by policies that reduced risks for investors in new technologies, and provided CHP, renewables and waste priority access to the grid

Danish power system ( ) Peck, March Risø Energy Report 4 Flexibility, stability and security of energy supply, POUL SøRENSEN, PETER MEIBOM, PER NøRGåRD, RISø NATIONAL LABORATORy, DENMARK

Decentralised CHP in Denmark Peck, March

10 MASNEDØ CHP plant Denmark households 40Ktpa straw 8.3MW e 21MW h

Peck, Lund, Oct Wind Straw Other agricultural waste

12 Sweden Multiple shifts since 1970

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19 Agricultural waste Straw – a natural starting point for agricultural economies

Peck, March Net straw surplus/deficit (1000 tonnes/region) estimated from national studies and cattle breeding data (Eurostat: Spain – year 2002, Bulgaria – year 2001, other countries - year 2003)

Peck, March MW straw plants feasible in EU 200ktpa (40MW) reserve 50% transport radius 50 km. Key ingredients for an efficient system 1.Harvest waste 2.Heat sinks

22 Large volumes renewable gas? Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas?

Peck, March Gothenburg Energy plant CoBiGas – synthetic biogas from gasified biofuels  Transportation fueld  Industrial processes  Combined heat and power 100 MW gas... circa 800 GWh/år. Gasification plant  2 stages – 1st (ca 20 MW) ,  2nd (ca 80 MW)

Peck, March Sweden’s road transportation fuels Petrol (Gasoline) – circa 50TWh Diesel – circa 20 TWh Some rough figures.... feasible figures Biogas potential (waste + dedicated crops) 15TWh Synthetic biogas potential (forestry waste) 25TWh

Peck, March Some rough estimates 100MW 100 MW capacity...operational year...circa 1 TWh t wood..... Circa 1 TWh t straw..... Circa 1 Twh 600m 50m 15m Timber (roundwood)

Peck, March This much wood every year? (200MW capacity?) ~ m 3 solid wood (???)

Peck, March Can large plantation forestry produce results quickly? (Australia) Tax scheme years of plantings at ha/year Eucalyptus Landuse change > ha farmland (650mm to 750mm annual rainfall zone) – now carbon sink year pulp wood cycle, year saw log cycle First pellet plants (slash and harvest waste) online (13 x 125ktpa modules in 6-8 locations) First contracts with European Power utilities for pellet supply 2009 Within 5 years 1.6 Mtpa pellets Roughly 8TWh --- or sufficient to cofire 10% wood pellets in 8 x 1000MW capacity coal fired plants

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Peck, Lund, Oct A demonstration BTL plant in Germany (15ktpa) ….. Multiply by 10 ?

Peck, Lund, Oct Or this much wood ?? "Mount Byholma" --- storm fellings m 3 timber Piles 13 meters high & 2 km long Foto: Göranssons Åkeri.

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Peck, Lund, Oct Fischer Tropsch plant 1Mtpa

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