Mitigation Potential and Value of Addressing Agriculture as a Driver of Deforestation Sirintornthep Towprayoon Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment and Earth System Science Research Center. King Mongkut's University of Thonburi Presentation in the workshop of Building REDD-plus Policy Capacity for Developing Country Negotiators and Land Managers May 2011 Hanoi Veitnam

Outline Agriculture as the driver of deforestation Are agricultural mitigation options drivers of deforestation? Values and costs of agricultural mitigation Agricultural mitigation as the complement to deforestation

Developing countriesDeveloped countries World Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002 Type of area change (Mha) Source : Data derived from FAO and AR4

FRA 2010 Annual change in forest by region, 1990–2010 Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002 IPCC AR4

Driver to deforestation Deforestation Crop price Technology Poverty Population growth Forest fire Soil degradation Agriculture Are agricultural mitigation options driver to deforestation? Culture

Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector Livestock management – Improve feedings practice, dietary additive Manure management – Improve storage and handling, AD, efficient use of nutrient source Direct mitigation : Emission Reduction Indirect mitigation : Avoid CO 2 emission

Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont) Cropland management – Nutrient management – Tillage/residue management – Water management – Rice management – Agroforestry Restoration of degraded land – Organic amendment – Nutrient amendment

Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont) Biofuel/bioenergy – Biochar – Energy crop : Sugarcane to bioethanol, Oil palm to biodiesel

Examples of mitigation technology Cropland: nutrient management Nutrient management Reduction efficiency (%) Source Nitrification (Nitrification inhibitor) 38%Akiyama et al., 2009 Polymer-coated fertilizers 35%Akiyama et al., 2009 Dicyandiamide ( Nitrification inhibitor) 20–30%Hadi et al., 2008 Site-specific nutrient management 20%Tassanee et al Co-fertilizer of organic and chemical 46%Zheng et al., 2000 Source: Pongthep and Amnat 2010

Examples of mitigation technology Cropland: rice field – Water management 30–40% reduction – SRI (system rice intensification) approx 37% reduction – AWDI (alternative wet /dry irrigation) approx 70% reduction – Inhibitor 20–60% reduction Source : Tassanee and Sirintornthep 2010

Values and cost of agricultural mitigation IPCC AR4 WGIII SPM

Abatement cost in rice field: Case of Thailand $10–60 per tonne of CO 2 e 1 water drainage 2 shift fertilizer 3 combination of 1 and

Wassman et al 2007 Marginal abatement cost curves for 3 rd Baseline technology: continuous flooding, Mixed FYM/urea: straw burning US$ /tCe

Abatement cost curve in agriculture sector of Indonesia

Value /Co-benefit Sustainable agriculture Culture and way of life Income Environmental benefit

Agricultural mitigation as the complement to deforestation deforestation Crop price Limited land expansion Food and fuel crop competition -Full utilization of cropland – crop rotation -Improve crop yield Poverty alleviation

Crop rotation as the alternative systems for sustainable agriculture SustainabilityEnvironmental benefit Energy securityFarmer income increase Yield increased Energy Crop utilization Soil carbon stock increased Emission reduced Rice-crop-rice

RI plot wet sowing25 DAS 40 DAS115 DAS 130 DAS140 DAS, harvest RS plot 22 DAT37 DAT 60 DAT90 DAT 115 DAT, harvest 105 DAT

Yield from food and fuel rotation crop Agricultural area of Thailand M Rai Area of rain-fed rice field (2010) M rai rice yield M tonnes Area of irrigated rice field (2010) M rai rice yield 8.86 M tonnes Sweet sorghum Cultivation time days Yield 5-7 tonnes per Rai Syrup from stem litre per rai Bioethanol litre per Rai

Source: Stephen A. Goff and John M. Salmeron, Yield improvement

Direction of GMO research and biotechnology

Sugarcane CassavaOil Palm Yield (ton per rai) Highest potential using genetic research Potential of genetic study in Thailand Current yield Potential of genetic improvement of energy crops Management and technology Plant breeding/plant development

Investment cost of ethanol production (USD/L) SOurce : Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops :2007 EU-25 (Beetroot) EU-25 (Wheat) USA (corn) India (Molasses) Thailand ( Sugarcane) Australia (Molasses) Brazil (Sugarcane)

Food Fuel and Forest deforestation Crop price Limited land expansion Food and fuel crop competition -Full utilization of cropland—crop rotation -Improve crop yield Poverty alleviation Policies and incentives

Messages Sustainable agriculture and agricultural mitigation can be complementary to deforestation Full utilization of cropland with co-benefits for farmers Food security can not be addressed without yield improvement. Policies and incentives are key issue to ensure sustainable agriculture towards negative drivers of deforestation

Acknowledgement Thailand Research Fund and Energy and Policy Planning Office for Data from Energy Policy Project Phase II Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization

Thank you for your attention