Mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change/variability and natural disasters Wang Shili Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Climate change will bring out remarkable impacts on natural ecosystem and socio-economy, some impacts are catastrophic and irreversible. It is necessary to study the impacts and adopt the adaptive measures in advance in order to mitigate the adverse influence. Climate variability results in the instable of agricultural production, the impacts of extreme climate events and various disasters are increasing around the world.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change

Up till now the study on climate change and its impacts have made many progress. However the issue of mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change is not played much attention, the relative study is rather insufficient and weakness, and it is difficult to implement and practice. there is a long way to go.

Reduce emission of green house gasses to improve the efficiency of energy use to use clean and renewable energy-wind resources, solar resources to reduce the emission from agricultural practice, such as deforest, combusting residence, paddy field control to increase tree planting and forestry acreage

Develop sustainable agriculture to breed and improve crop cultivars and varieties with resisting adverse strain and high photosynthesis efficiency adjust cropping system and layout arrangement, such as changing cropping into animal husbandry in marginal areas, improve the ability of absorbing co2 of agricultural practice_maize crop

develop save-water agriculture, reasonable irrigation scheme develop traditional agricultural practice which are favor and friendly to environment protection, straw mulching, water harvest Prepare and control pest, disease and weeds, develop reagents without pollution, biological control techniques

Protect ecological environment and reasonable land use Water erosion control Avoid over-grazing, develop optimal animal husbandry strategies according to reasonable animal capacity Promote concordant, integrated agricultural development in vulnerable regions.

Latent heat flux is reduced Wheat yield increased by 18.5%, water use efficiency was improved by 22.1%. straw mulching

Water harvest

A project to shift farm land to grassland or forest in western part of China arid semi-arid regions vulnerable ecological environment less arable land pool agricultural production

Serious soil erosion soil and water control by grass

Crop are planted in lower and flat layer

Strength water resources management Enhance water resources planning and control (ecological water usage, agricultural irrigation water usage and resident life water usage), improve water use efficiency Develop cloud water resources in atmosphere, sea water processing

Coastal management Monitor raise of sea level Build the coastwise safeguard Develop early warning system of extreme climate events

Training and education Improve the public aware of climate change and mitigation impacts of climate change Strength training and education for farmers.

Reducing impacts of climate variability on sustainable agriculture

Monitor agro-meteorological condition based on station observation network, remote sensing and GIS Assess impacts and risk analysis Apply seasonal prediction in agricultural production

Drought is one of the most severe meteorological disasters With characteristic of slow development, long duration, wide stricken area and severity. Significant impact on hydrology, agriculture, eco-environment, economy and society

Drought Distribution in China

Monitoring based on Station Network Weather Stations in China Agro-meteorological Stations Soil Moisture Observation Stations

Precipitation, abnormality, drought index from Sep. to Oct Rainfall Amount in period from Sep. to Oct. Anomaly Percent (%) anomaly -50% Rainfall <100mm Severe drought Extreme drought

Drought Evolution in October, 2004

轻旱 First decade in March, 2004 Second decade in July, 2004 Drought grade Water supply vegetation index method Thermal inertia method

Drought Monitoring and Assessment using GIS Drought index on 15, September, 2004 Drought grade Drought acrage(km 2 ) in whole province: (19%) Climate and agro-meteorological Centre, Guangdong

F, P: water stress and their probability; R,D: yield reduction percent and probability; a: time trend coefficients of drought-resisting capacity Comprehensive drought risk zoning of wheat in North China Risk zoning of drought loss of wheat in North China R: yield reduction percent; P: average yield reduction percent; C: variance coefficient of yield reduction; k: index of disaster-resisting Comprehensive risk zoning

Application of Seasonal Prediction in Agricultural production  Seasonal Climate Prediction and Cropping System Decisions  Seasonal Climate Prediction and Farm Management Decision  Seasonal Climate Prediction and Agrometeorological Disasters  Climate Prediction and Grain Production  Climate Prediction and Plant Diseases and Insect Pests

Predicted soil moisture Observed soil moisture Normal needed urgently Irrigation scheme service based on climate forecasts and agrometeorological model shown on TV

Wheat drought prediction in North China based on crop model and regional climate prediction Predicted 10-days early warning of wheat drought

Meteorological Forecast of RPH outbreak The forecasted result of the attacked area percentage of rice by RPH with the average area index of subtropical High from Jul. to Oct. in comparison with the actually occurrence the attacked areapercentage of rice by RPH (%) year Forecasted attacked area percentage Actual attacked area percentage