THE FISCAL COMMISSION 5/21/101For RMLC. NATIONAL DEBT Fiscal Year$ in trillions% of GDP 1946$0.3122% 1981$1.033% 1993$4.366% 2000$5.658% 2008$10.070%

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Presentation transcript:

THE FISCAL COMMISSION 5/21/101For RMLC

NATIONAL DEBT Fiscal Year$ in trillions% of GDP 1946$0.3122% 1981$1.033% 1993$4.366% 2000$5.658% 2008$10.070% 2012$ % 2020$ % 5/21/102For RMLC

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS Cut spending Restructure “entitlements” Raise taxes Keep borrowing & inflate 5/21/103For RMLC

WHY A COMMISSION? Political leaders cater to short-term interests of their constituents. A commission can give them cover to do “the right thing”. Partisan bickering creates gridlock. Commission spanning political spectrum can propose bipartisan answers. 5/21/104For RMLC

National Commission for Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Created by executive order on 2/18/10 18 members (12 from Congress, 6 other) Medium-term objective (3% deficit by 2015) “Everything on the table” First meeting April 27, 6 more general meetings scheduled, report due around December 1 Recommendations require at least 14 votes 5/21/10 5For RMLC

FC MEMBERS Co-ChairsErskine Bowles (former investment banker, White House chief of staff, and university president); Alan Simpson (former senator, has served on various advisory groups including the Iraq Study Group) At largeDavid Cote (CEO of Honeywell, identified as a Republican); Alice Rivlin (former Federal Reserve vice chair and budget director in the Clinton Administration, now with Brookings Institution); Anne Fudge (former CEO of Young & Rubicam Brands, also held executive positions at General Mills and Kraft Foods); Andrew Stern (retiring president of Service Employees International Union or SEIU). The SenateMax Baucus (D-MT); Tom Coburn (R-OK); Kent Conrad (D-SD); Mike Crapo (R-ID); Dick Durbin (D-IL); Judd Gregg (R-NH) The HouseXavier Becerra (D-CA); Dave Camp (R-MI); Jeb Hensarling (R-TX); Paul Ryan (R-WI); Jan Schakowsky (D-IL); John Spratt (D-SC). 5/21/106For RMLC Co-ChairsErskine Bowles (former investment banker, White House chief of staff, university president); Alan Simpson (former senator, was on Iraq Study Group). At largeDavid Cote (CEO of Honeywell); Alice Rivlin (former Federal Reserve vice chair & budget director, now with Brookings); Ann Fudge (former CEO of Young & Rubicam); Andrew Stern (former president of SEIU). The SenateMax Baucus (D-MT); Tom Coburn (R-OK); Kent Conrad (D-SD); Mike Crapo (R-ID); Dick Durbin (D-IL); Judd Gregg (R-NH). The HouseXavier Becerra (D-CA); Dave Camp (R-MI); Jeb Hensarling (R-TX); Paul Ryan (R-WI); Jan Schakowsky (D-IL); John Spratt (D-SC).

ISSUES Reflecting outcome of November elections? Enough time? The right group? The right goal? Is deck stacked in favor of big tax increase, e.g., Value Added Tax? 5/21/107For RMLC

RASMUSSEN POLL (4/27) 83% blame deficits on unwillingness of political leaders to cut spending vs. public opposition to raising taxes 78% expect Congress to raise taxes if FC so recommends 69% oppose tax increases to eliminate deficits 58% think that if Congress raises taxes, the money will be used for new spending 5/21/108For RMLC

STRAW POLL Four paths: Cut spending; restructure entitlements; raise taxes; keep borrowing. Questions: Which best? Which most likely? 5/21/10For RMLC9