120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 1 September 2010 Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I Topline Findings Prepared for: Maine Today Media September 2010 Focus Groups  Surveys  Public Opinion Polling 120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine Telephone: Fax:

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 2 September 2010 Report of Findings

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 3 September 2010 Introduction

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 4 September 2010 Summary of Method & Approach A random, statewide poll of 603 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted as a baseline polling effort in mid-September. The survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media. Interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to: –Be a registered voter in the State of Maine; –Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and –Say they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2 nd. Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights. –Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender, age, and geographic distribution of Maine voters. Sample SizeData Collection Period Margin of Error Length of Interview 90%95% 603September 13, 2010 ±3.4±4.0 8 minutes

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 5 September 2010 Respondent Profile

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 6 September 2010 Respondent Gender and Age Could you tell me how old you are? % 18 to 24 years old4% 25 to 34 years old11 35 to 44 years old26 45 to 54 years old17 55 to 64 years old23 65 to 74 years old10 75 years old or over6

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 7 September 2010 Family Status Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home? What is your current marital status? % Married70% Single14 Divorced7 Widowed5 Living as part of a couple3

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 8 September 2010 SES: Level of Education & Income What is the highest grade or year of regular school or college that you have completed? % High school or less28% Post high school, technical5 Some college20 College degree30 Some graduate school3 Graduate school degree14 And which one of the following broad groups includes your entire household’s approximate total yearly income before taxes? % Less than $25,00013% $25,000 to just under $50,00018 $50,000 to just under $75,00019 $75,000 to just under $100,00014 $100,000 or more15 No answer21

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 9 September 2010 Political Party and Ideology In what political party are you registered to vote? % Democratic39% Republican33 Unenrolled/Independent21 Green Ind. or other party3 Thinking about your political leanings, would you say you are…% Very conservative17% Somewhat conservative26 Moderate23 Somewhat liberal20 Very liberal10

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 10 September 2010 Cultural/Ethnic Group Which of the following categories best describes your ethnic background? % Caucasian/White48% Franco American23 American6 Other15 Don’t know4

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 11 September 2010 Tenure in Maine To begin, how long have you lived in Maine? % Under 6 years4% 6 to just under 10 years5 10 to just under 20 years11 20 years or more80

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 12 September 2010 Research Results

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 13 September 2010 Residents’ Top of Mind Concerns for Maine Please complete the following sentence by mentioning the first thing that comes to mind: “When I think about the future of Maine, the one thing I am most concerned about is…” * * Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 14 September 2010 Residents’ Views on Key Issues Facing the State of Maine Using a scale from 1 to 10, where a 1 means “not at all concerned” and a 10 means “extremely concerned,” please tell me how concerned you are with each of these issues.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 15 September 2010 Residents’ Household Financial Situation Thinking now about your personal circumstances, would you say that the economic security of your household is much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than it was two years ago? NET BETTER 12% NET WORSE 37%

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 16 September 2010 Residents’ Household Financial Situation Why is that? * % Better pay/Increase in pay22% New job/Promotion/More work19 Low expenses/Overhead15 Budget/Savings/Thrifty12 Job security12 Good financial situation10 Retired/On Social Security5 * Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat better” than two years ago (n=69). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 17 September 2010 Residents’ Household Financial Situation Why is that? * % Same or similar circumstances47% Stable job/Job security28 Retired/On Social Security14 Don’t know7 * Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “about the same” as two years ago (n=303). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 18 September 2010 Residents’ Household Financial Situation Why is that? * % Unemployed/Lack of jobs22% Bad economy/The economy20 Less money/income14 Cost of living increases12 Lost job/Company out of business10 Tax increases/Property taxes9 Self employed with less work6 * Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat worse” than two years ago (n=221). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 19 September 2010 Which of the following two political parties – Democrat or Republican – do you feel best serves your interests? Residents’ Political Party Preferences

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 20 September 2010 Residents’ Awareness of Maine Campaigns I’m interested in how closely you have been following the campaigns of the various candidates for Governor and Congress in Maine. Using a scale of 0 to 5, where a 0 means you haven’t been following this at all and a 5 means that you’ve been following it very closely, tell me how much attention you’ve been paying to this issue.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 21 September 2010 Residents ' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote? Would you vote for…

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 22 September 2010 Residents ' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Paul LePage? * * Based on respondents who said they would vote for Paul LePage if voting were held tomorrow (n=230). What are your reasons for voting for Paul LePage? ** % Agree with his ideas and views or disagree with other candidates 32% Because of party11 Position on taxes10 Position on jobs & economy9 Democrats have failed7 We need a change6 Fiscally responsible6 Position on welfare6 Don’t know6 ** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 23 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Libby Mitchell? * * Based on respondents who said they would vote for Libby Mitchell if voting were held tomorrow (n=148). What are your reasons for voting for Libby Mitchell? ** % Agree with her ideas and views or disagree with other candidates 44% Because of party22 Proven track record/Past experience16 Best candidate5 Don’t know8 ** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 24 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Eliot Cutler? * * Based on respondents who said they would vote for Eliot Cutler if voting were held tomorrow (n=65). What are your reasons for voting for Eliot Cutler? ** % Agree with his ideas and views or disagree with other candidates 67% Position on jobs & the economy5 We need a change5 Other8 Don’t know5 ** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 25 September 2010 Residents’ Leaning in Maine Gubernatorial Race Who would that be? % Libby Mitchell32% Paul LePage31 Eliot Cutler11 Other13 Don’t know9 * Asked of residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=126 ). Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? * ** Percentages should be interpreted with caution due to low number of responses (n=34).

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 26 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD1 Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… * * Asked of Congressional District 1 residents only (n=316).

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 27 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD1 Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? * Chellie PingreeDean Scontras * Based on respondents who said they would vote for Chellie Pingree (n=167) or Dean Scontras (n=91) if voting were held tomorrow.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 28 September 2010 Residents’ Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD1 * Asked of CD1 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=55). Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? * Who would that be? ** n=7 Other7 ** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 29 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD2 Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… * * Asked of Congressional District 2 residents only (n=287).

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 30 September 2010 Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD2 Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? * Michael MichaudJason Levesque * Based on respondents who said they would vote for Michael Michaud (n=138) or Jason Levesque (n=81) if voting were held tomorrow.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 31 September 2010 Residents ' Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD2 Who would that be? ** n=5 Michael Michaud3 Jason Levesque2 * Asked of CD2 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=56). Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? * ** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.