New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West Robert Lang, Ph.D. Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLV Department of Sociology Tom Sanchez,

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Presentation transcript:

New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West Robert Lang, Ph.D. Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLV Department of Sociology Tom Sanchez, Ph.D. Professor and Chair, Urban Affairs and Planning Virginia Tech Christina Nicholas Ph.D. Candidate, UNLV Department of Sociology 1

America Keeps Growing 2 America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and Pakistan—But faster than China. Most of this gain is in large metros. 200 million in million in million in 2039 Source: Census Bureau

The Big Picture The New 3D Politics Density + Diversity = Democrats Election 2008 The Suburbs Ruled! Looking Ahead to 2010 and Beyond Demography = Destiny? Not always. Especially not when the U.S. is in a deep recession. 3

The New U.S. Urban Hierarchy 4 TypesDescriptionsExamples Metropolitan Statistical Area An “urbanized area” or “principal city” with at least 50,000 people plus surrounding counties with a 25% “Employment Interchange Measure” (EIM) in 2000 Pittsburgh, Denver Combined Statistical Area Two or more adjacent micro and metropolitan areas that have an EIM of at least 15% in 2000 Washington/ Baltimore, Cleveland/Akron Megapolitan Area—Defined by UNLV/U of Utah Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 50 and 200 miles apart that will have an EIM of 15% by 2040 based on projection Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson), Northern California (San Francisco/ Sacramento) Mega-Region Defined by RPA and Lincoln Institute Large, connected networks of metropolitan areas that maintain environmental, cultural, and functional linkages Piedmont, Texas Triangle

Old vs. New Census Definition 5

Original Metro Typology 6 Brookings-County Typology ▫ Is Based on Commuting Patterns, Land Uses, and Growth Rates ▫ Uses Five Categories Core—Cook, IL Inner Suburb—De Kalb, GA Mature Suburb—Fairfax, VA Emerging Suburb—Douglas, CO Exurb—Pinal, AZ

Metropolitan Areas 7 Nearly All Population Gains to Mid Century are in Metropolitan Areas A Greater Share of Metropolitan Growth Will Occur in Built Up Areas Republican Rural and Exurban Vote Cannot Offset The Democrats Gains in Urbanizing Suburbs Much Longer

Dems Win 4 in 5 of P.V. Since

9 Electoral Collage Votes, YearDemocratRepublicanDem Votes Rep VotesWinnerDifference 2008ObamaMcCain365173Dem KerryBush252286Rep GoreBush267271Rep4 1996ClintonDole379159Dem ClintonBush370168Dem DukakisBush112426Rep314

Suburban Politics 10 The 2006 Democratic Gains Made in Urbanizing Suburbs Expanded in 2008 and Helped Obama win the Presidential Election Democrats now Dominate the Urbanizing Suburbs and are at least Competitive at the Metropolitan Fringe

2008 Democrats Gain and Loss 11 Source: USA Today

Red versus Blue (2006) 12

13 Geographic Breakdown of Mountain West 2009MetropolitansMicropolitansNon-Core Based State Total Population Population% % % Arizona6,595,7786,121, , , Colorado5,024,7484,338, , , Idaho1,545,8011,150, , , Nevada2,643,0852,377, , , New Mexico2,009,6711,335, , , Utah2,784,5722,492, , , Southern Mountain West11,248,5349,834, ,197, , Northern Mountain West9,355,1217,981, , , Mountain West20,603,65517,816, ,028, , Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population Projections Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

14 Metropolitan Statistical Area Breakdown by Principal and Non-Principal Cities MetropolitansPrincipal CityNon-Principal City State Population % % Arizona6,121,6263,135, ,986, Colorado4,338,3621,950, ,387, Idaho1,150,758473, , Nevada2,377,271862, ,514, New Mexico1,335,985740, , Utah2,492,831631, ,860, Southern Mountain West9,834,8824,738, ,096, Northern Mountain West7,981,9513,055, ,926, Mountain West17,816,8337,793, ,022, Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

15 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Mountain West Metropolitan Statistical Area Total Population Non-Principal City Population % Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ4,364,0942,050, Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO2,552,1951,562, Boise City-Nampa, ID606,376319, Las Vegas-Paradise*, NV1,902,8341,138, Albuquerque, NM857,903328, Salt Lake City, UT1,130,293947, Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population Projection * Paradise is a census designated place. Population projection obtained from American Community Survey

The Democrats won the Mountain West metro counties in 2004 but won these places by larger margins in 2008 and help flipped three states to the Democrats. 16 Mountain West

17 Metropolitan Non-Metropolitan 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections: Republican to Democrat switch by Non- Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties

18 Voter Distribution by State in the Mountain West, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections Voter TurnoutRepublicanDemocratChange StatesYearRegisteredPopulation% % %Turnout % R Arizona 20042,643,3312,038, ,104, , ,987,4512,320, ,230, ,034, Colorado 20042,411,5512,146, ,101, ,000, ,210,2492,422, ,073, ,288, Idaho ,015612, , , ,538667, , , Nevada 20041,071,101831, , , ,208,382970, , , New Mexico 20041,145,172775, , , ,185,439833, , , Utah 20041,278,251942, , , ,432,525971, , ,

19 Voter Distribution in the Mountain West, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections Voter TurnoutRepublicanDemocratChange RegionYearRegisteredPopulation% % %Turnout % R Southern Mountain West 20044,859,6043,645, ,899, ,661, ,381,2724,124, ,989, ,040, Northern Mountain West 20044,487,8173,701, ,174, ,422, ,506,3124,060, ,072, ,852, Mountain West 20049,347,4217,346, ,074, ,084, ,887,5848,184, ,062, ,893, Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

20 Voter Distribution by largest MSA in each State, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections Voter TurnoutRepublicanDemocratChange YearRegisteredPopulation% % %Turnout% R Phoenix-Mesa- Glendale, AZ 20041,643,5141,277, , , ,876,5901,486, , , Denver-Aurora- Broomfield, CO 20041,198,2101,059, , , ,612,1551,218, , , Boise City- Nampa, ID ,031229, , , ,878263, , , Las Vegas- Paradise, NV ,313546, , , ,190652, , , Albuquerque, NM ,388341, , , ,430381, , , Salt Lake City, UT ,967339, , , ,920404, , ,

21 What if only micropolitans and non-core based areas voted in 2008? Voter TurnoutRepublicanDemocrat RegisteredPopulation%Pop.% % Colorado Micropolitans168,232123, , , Non-Core Based272,842202, , , Nevada Micropolitans110,62692, , , Non-Core Based22,52618, , , New Mexico Micropolitans343,694226, , , Non-Core Based53,93636, , ,

22 Did the Metropolitan Vote Tip the State to Democrats in 2008? Total State Total Metropolitan Votes Metropolitan Democrat Votes VotersPopulation% % Colorado2,422,2372,096, ,136, Nevada970,018859, , New Mexico833,154570, ,

Metropolitan votes failed to tip the state to Democrats in Total State Total Metropolitan Voters Metro Democrat Votes VotersPopulation% % Colorado2,146,3721,841, , Nevada831,833731, , New Mexico775,301518, ,

Thank you. 24