Russian Economic Report No. 23 Zeljko Bogetic Lead Economist and Coordinator for Economic Policy for Russia, The World Bank November 2, 2010 Moscow Growth with moderation and uncertainty

I.Recent Economic Developments II.Economic and social Outlook for

Key messages Moderating growth with uncertainty Moderate oil prices, downside risks Rising fiscal risks

Global industrial production and trade have recovered to pre-crisis levels but there has been a “pause” in growth in recent months Global Industrial production Source: Global prospects, World Bank.

Non-bank capital flows to developing countries continue to grow, but bank flows remain weak Capital flows to developing countries Source: Global prospects, World Bank.

Most economies in Europe and Central Asia contracted in 2009 ….. Source: WB staff estimates.

––but then returned to growth in 2010, albeit less robust than in other regions Source: WB staff estimates.

RUSSIA’S RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Domestic demand—regaining momentum Labor markets––a temporary decline in unemployment Balance of payments––improved, but then deteriorating due to a rapid growth in imports Monetary policy–– in search of a fine balance to contain inflation and support growth Fiscal policy––rising fiscal risks

With stronger domestic demand, the Russian economy regained momentum in the second quarter 2010 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Rosstat data Q Q GDP growth Tradable sector Agriculture, forestry Extraction industries Manufacturing Non-tradable sector Electricity, gas, water production and distribution Construction Whole sale and retail trade Transport and communication Financial services GDP growth by main sectors (value added): 2006–2010

A sizeable but temporary grain shock: impact on poverty Poverty increase due to changes in grain prices Source: World Bank staff estimates using household survey data.

Labor markets – unemployment lower but still unsettled situation Labor productivity, disposable income, wages, and unemployment Source: Rosstat. a Data for the first half of Jan-Dec Jan – SepSep GDP growth, percent, year on year a n/a Total employment, million people Employment growth, percent, year on year a-0.1 Labor productivity growth, percent, year on year a n/a Real disposable income growth, percent, year on year Real wage growth, percent, year on year Average monthly wage, USD Unemployment (percent, ILO definition, e-o-p)

Unemployment elevated, varies widely across Russia’s regions Bigger regions show less improvement Smaller regions with larger shares of SME and FDI show improvement Ratio of Regional Unemployment rates 2010*/2008 Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.*Data for January - August.

Balance of payments–– improved, but then deteriorating due to a rapid growth in imports Balance of payments (USD billions), 2007–2010 Source: CBR. a Preliminary estimates H1-09H1-10Q a Current account balance Trade balance Capital and financial account

Monetary and exchange rate policy Monetary conditions remain loose Trade off: low policy rates or inflationary pressures Gradual recovery in credits CBR has further widened the exchange rate corridor Stock of credits to companies and households in 2007–10 Source: CBR; World Bank staff estimates.

Fiscal policy––smaller-than-expected deficit due to favorable oil prices … *2012*2013* Revenues (Consolidated) Of which Federal budget Expenditures (Consolidated) Of which Federal budget Federal budget Non-oil deficit Federal budget balance Consolidated budget balance Medium term fiscal framework *Draft Budget 2011 – Source: World Bank staff estimates based on draft budget documents, the Ministry of Finance.

Downside risk to oil prices Dwindling “oil cushion” in the budget (the difference between the forecast and planned oil price in the budget) and fiscal reserves  This makes budget more vulnerable to new oil shocks  If the oil prices were to fall to an average of $60 in 2011, the deficit would increase to 5-5,.5 % of GDP range Rising expenditure pressures before the election Source: State Duma database, Bloomberg, WB. …but rising fiscal risks

Economic and Social Outlook for Russia, The summary of the global outlook Source: Russian Economic Report, The World Bank. 2009(actual) World High income countries Developing countries China Japan The United States Euro area

Oil prices are expected to remain stable but with downside risks World Bank oil price forecast. Average crude (Brent, Dubai and WTI), simple average, $/bbl

Outlook for Russia: World growth, % Oil prices, average, USD/bbl Russia GDP growth, % Consolidated government balance, % Current account, USD bln Capital account, USD bln Source: Global Economic Prospects (World growth and oil prices), and Russian Economic Report, The World Bank.

Sources of growth Demand sources of Russia’s real growth, by quarter, 2008–10 (percent change year to year) Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.

Q Real GDP Level (Index, seasonally adjusted): 1998 vs crises Russia’s output to return to pre-crisis level only in 2012; long-term growth likely to be much more moderate than before the crisis Source: Rosstat, WB staff calculations.

In Summary … Moderate growth with downside risks to oil Domestic demand driven growth Unemployment to get worse before it gets better Smaller regions with greater share of SMEs and larger flows of FDIs, and better investment climate lead employment recovery Sizable but temporary grain price shock Monetary - exchange policy - a balancing act Looking ahead Short-term: Fiscal risks rising: oil prices, the dwindling “oil cushion” in the budget, rising expenditure pressures, contingent liabilities Long-term constraints: infrastructure, institutions, investment climate

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