Global Outlook, Spillovers, and Vulnerability in Israel M.K. Tang (IMF) May 5, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Outlook, Spillovers, and Vulnerability in Israel M.K. Tang (IMF) May 5, 2009

Roadmap  Outlook for the world economy  Impact on Israel  Constraints on Israel’s fiscal options and implications for fiscal rules

Free Falling Activity

Extent of Crisis Catching Forecasters Off-guard

Deep Recession, Tepid Recovery… Source: WEO April 2009

…with Substantial Downside Risks Source: WEO April 2009

Global Downturn Weighs on Israel

1. Trade Linkages

2. External Asset Exposures

Main External Determinants

Strength of Spillovers

Counteractive Policy Reponses Can Boost Recovery Source: WEO April 2009

Israel’s External Position Robust

But Some Market Signs of Discomfort...

…as Fiscal Sustainability a Concern… Source: IMF

…and Global Financial Flows Could be Fragile

Implications for Fiscal Rules  Economic gloom and uncertainty on near- term horizon  Automatic stabilizers could cushion the blow, even so financing risks nontrivial  Benefits of structural fiscal loosening hinge on impacts on sustainability and market confidence

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