 Population is a relatively simple concept to forecast In- Migration Fertility Out- Migration Mortality BEGINNING POPULATION New England States FORECAST POPULATION New England States Births Aging New England’s Population Future 2

Sources of Population Change,  In-migration is a larger factor than “natural increase” 3

The importance of age in migration  Age is a large factor in persons’ late teens and early 20’s 4

 Minority populations have in-migrated across all ages, while  The majority, white, population has largely out-migrated Importance of race and ethnicity 5

Forecast of the Future Workforce, ages  Decreases are projected everywhere but Vermont and New Hampshire  Persistent increases in the size of the minority population shows every where 6

Role of Minorities in the Future Workforce  Percentages double everywhere but in Connecticut and Maine 7

Forecasts of New Entrants into the Workforce  For younger workers, minority populations are even more noticeable than for the whole workforce 8

Role of Minorities as Workforce entrants  The change in young white entrants will be negative across all states through 2000 as it was in the 1990’s  While the total population of an age to enter the workforce will be positive in most states, it will be so only because of the increases in minority percentages 9

Migration: Economic Development Driver  In-migration:  What causes it? Is there enough? How can it be increased? 10

A History of Increased Educational Attainment  Increases at all levels of possible attainment occurred in the 1990’s  A fact New England expects as its developmental edge 11

Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity  Significant gaps in attainment among race/ethnic groups, however, occurred during the 1990’s  Gains were greater for the white population than for other races and ethnicities 12

Changes in Attainment by Race and Ethnicity  There was a small growth in numbers of white persons with completed baccalaureates in the 1990’s, but most gains came from improvements in attainment  Much of the gain for minority populations came from increases in the population; much less came from improvements in attainment  For the Hispanic population, there were decreases in participation rates in college and graduation rates from college 13

 Lack of Improvements appears to hold the division of attainment relatively constant New England’s Future without Improvements in Educational Attainment 14

% of Young Entrants with a Baccalaureate or more  For all states but New Hampshire, the proportion of Baccalaureate holders will fall significantly without improvements in educational attainment 15

In Massachusetts, the decline in educational attainment of workers includes those with some college—Associate Degrees or incomplete work toward a baccalaureate 16  For Massachusetts, while the the proportion of young with Baccalaureates will fall by 2.9%, the proportion with some college will fall by nearly 1.4% without educational improvements

In Connecticut, the decline in educational attainment of workers also includes all, from those with some college through those with completed baccalaureates and professional degrees  For Connecticut, while the the proportion of young with Baccalaureates will fall by 3.5%, the proportion with some college will fall by nearly 1% without educational improvements 61.3% 57.0% 34.0% 30.5% Holders of associate degrees, certificates and partial work toward baccalaureate degrees Holders of baccalaureate, professional and advanced degrees 17