The International Schools Market: Growing, Changing, Evolving Presentation by Brinton (Pete) Woodward Director, Commission on American & International Schools (CAISA) Prepared by Nadia Alam, Research Associate, NEASC CAISA Workshop, Endicott College June 23-24, 2010

Current Statistics (as of April 2010) 5,619 international schools worldwide (doubled in last 10 years) 2,585,413 international school students Asia currently accounts for 52% of market Source:: ISC Research & NEASC calculations

International Schools as of March 2010 * Includes Middle East and Western Asia Source:: ISC Research Total = 5,609

International Schools Geographic Distribution as of March 2010 * Includes Middle East and Western Asia Source:: ISC Research & NEASC calculations

Source:: ISC Research

Source: ISC Research

Curriculum breakdown as of March 2010 Source: ISC Research

Growth of new English-medium schools, Jan –May 2008 Data represent new schools opened in five-month period from January 2008 to May 2008.

Percentage distribution of newly established English-medium international schools between January and May 2008 by region Source:: ISC Research & NEASC calculations

1. Staggering growth, especially in Asia 2. Increase in percentage of for-profit schools 3. Increase in proportion of students from host-country population Key Trends in the International School Market

Jan ’09- Jan ’10: International school market growth rate = 7.2 % (370 schools); previously 11% Number of international schools has doubled in last 10 years (2,584 to 5,619 schools) Number of international school students has more than doubled in last 10 years (1 million to 2.5 million) Number of international school staff has more than doubled in last 10 years (90,000 to 220,000) Staggering growth, especially in Asia Source:: ISC Research

greatest growth in Asia (India, China)  11% More students going to English-speaking countries for college/university education 1. Staggering growth, especially in Asia Source:: ISC Research

India Economic development/globalization  high demand quality English-medium education Ave. income expected to DOUBLE during this decade (OECD) # of IB schools reaching “saturation point”* 25-30% growth rate in the # of ICGSE schools each year.* * Source: The Times of India. More international than ICSE or CBSE schools in Mumbai. By Anashita Mukherji; September 22, 2009; Accessed April 26, 2010 from.

India 2009: 170 international schools, 66,256 students and 6,462 staff* Foreign higher ed. institutions now allowed to establish campuses in India : number of students from India attending US higher ed. institutions up 175%** *Source:: ISC Research **Source: Institute of International Education (IIE)

India Source:: Institute of International Education (IIE)

India Growth of middle class…which will be 10 times bigger in 2025 Projected to be 5 th largest consumer market in the world by 2025 (currently 12 th ) Expanding urban population Projections indicate there will be 24 million people comprising wealthy class in 2025 (larger than pop. of Australia) Source:: McKinsey Global Institute

India In the next 10 years, you are going to have more than 40 million children going to college, an extra 40 million…So you have to create an infrastructure for them.” --Kapil Sabil, Minister for Human Resources, India

East Asia Shortage of schools Waiting lists Economic growth More students going abroad Source:: ISC Research

East Asia Source:: ISC Research

China 249 schools, 115,890 students, 12,414 staff (March ’10) * China = = 3 rd largest economy in the world ** Growing disposable income, middle class *** 21% increase in students going to US for college/university from 2008 to 2009 **** One of the most rapidly expanding markets *Source:: ISC Research **Source: World Bank ***Source: Brookings Institution ****Source: The Business Review

* ** *Source:: ISC Research **Source: Institute of International Education (IIE)

China The first industrial revolution created a 250% increase in per capita income over a 100 year period. The second industrial revolution triggered 350% per capita income growth over 60 years. By comparison, China is on track to create a 700% growth in per capita income in just 20 years. --Wikinvest

Expansion of International Baccalaureate Source:: International Baccalaureate® (IB)

IB Growth Over 5 Years: 84% increase 200% increase Source:: International Baccalaureate® (IB)

IB Growth Over 1 Year: 12% increase Source:: International Baccalaureate® (IB)

1. Staggering growth, especially in Asia 2. Increase in percentage of for-profit schools 3. Increase in proportion of students from host-country population Key Trends in the International School Market

Increase in percentage of for-profit schools Growth of private school management companies like Global Education Management Services (GEMS), Taleem, etc Helping meet demand

Increase in percentage of for-profit schools In terms of land (allocations), our priority is international schools in the next five years. We can’t afford another shortfall of educational places…which has a deterrent effect on the expatriate community planning to come to Hong Kong for investment or work. --Raymond Sy, Principal Assistant, Hong Kong Education Bureau

We are growing both organically and inorganically. In the next 25 years, I see 5,000 schools with 5 million children. And there will be no compromise on quality. --Sunny Varkey, Founder of GEMS Increase in percentage of for-profit schools

1. Staggering growth, especially in Asia 2. Increase in percentage of for-profit schools 3. Increase in proportion of students from host-country population Key Trends in the International School Market

Increase in proportion of students from host-country population ~20% of international students are from expatriate families and ~80% are from local population… opposite of 30 years ago Source:: ISC Research

Future Projections ---- Source:: ISC Research

Future Projections The future will be dominated by for-profit schools, bilingual to varying degrees, located in residential communities and increasingly international in terms of curriculum and outlook… --Nick Brummet, ISC Research, Ltd., April 2010

Discussion