2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference 1 E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS Tuesday, October 30, 2012 Bill Hurwitch, Maine Department of Education Rob Curtin, Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference Maine’s Early Warning System Massachusetts’s Early Warning System Digging Deeper: Which approach is most like yours? Report Out: What are your questions? And what have you learned? T ODAY W E ’ RE G OING TO D ISCUSS … 2

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference M AINE ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 3

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference SLDS data warehouse module that educators use to identify, address and manage a problem, opportunity or strategy. ● Uses data to identify students at risk ● Allows educators to create, assign and manage programs and interventions for at-risk students and track student progress ● Provides reports and data for analysis of model results and best practices as well as analysis to improve the model and programming ● Planned uses include: kindergarten readiness, RTI, high school dropout early warning, college readiness indicator M AINE ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 4

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference M AINE ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 5

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference Identifies high school students at risk of needing postsecondary remedial or developmental courses Reduces need for remedial or developmental courses in college by delivering courses in high school Reduces need for students to pay for a non-credit college courses Indicates to students not considering postsecondary education that they may be college ready Provides feedback on readiness and success to schools M AINE ’ S C OLLEGE R EADINESS M ODEL 6

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference SAT Participation Rates SAT Scores/State Assessment Results High School GPA Completion of Algebra II Attendance Completion of FAFSA Completion of 4 Years of Mathematics Course Completion/Scores in Dual Enrollment/Early College, Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate * New England Secondary School Consortium (CT/ME/NH/RI/VT) * M AINE ’ S C OLLEGE R EADINESS I NDICATORS * 7

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference Validate early warning system measures and weights with qualified research – test with historical data Limit data to relevant indicators and measures – just because you collect it you do not have to use it Provide the ability for educators to input and track school level data, programs and interventions Establish processes to measure student progress and the effectiveness of programs and interventions Establish security model for access to student-level data – staff responsible for indicators and interventions may require separate roles T HINGS TO C ONSIDER 8

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference M ASSACHUSETTS ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 9

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference 10 Massachusetts’s Early Warning System Massachusetts EWIS is for grade levels 1-12 Based on four grade-level groupings that are connected to level-appropriate academic goals along the academic trajectory that are designed to be relevant to and actionable for educators Risk models were designed and validated using longitudinal data Only includes data from existing statewide collections (SIMS and SCS) and state assessments (MCAS and MEPA)

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference 11 M ASSACHUSETTS ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM Provides risk level information for all students based on prior year data Three risk levels: low, moderate, high A student that is “low risk” is predicted to be likely to meet the academic goal The risk levels are not based on a student’s relative likelihood for reaching an academic goal when compared with other students Optional tool for Massachusetts educators Individual indicators in the risk model are not reflective of the level of risk - taken together, the indicators (data points) collectively form a risk level

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference M ASSACHUSETTS ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 12 Age Groups Grade Levels Academic Goals (expected student outcomes for each age group) Current Statewide Results for Goal Early Elementary Grades 1- 3 Proficient or advanced on 3rd grade ELA MCAS 61% Late Elementary Grades 4- 6 Proficient or advanced on 6 th grade ELA and Mathematics MCAS 54% Middle Grades Grades 7- 9 Passing grades on all 9 th grade courses75% High School Grades High school graduation (four-year)83.4%

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference Early warning systems cannot predict with 100% accuracy whether or not students will meet academic milestones Using historical data to test the model: 81-97% of low risk students met the goal 51-67% of moderate risk students met the goal 12-32% of high risk students met the goal Predictive power of the EWIS risk models rely heavily on the accuracy of the data reported to the Department (SCS data quality a particular concern) M ASSACHUSETTS ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 13

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference M ASSACHUSETTS ’ S E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM 14 The Massachusetts EWIS is…The Massachusetts EWIS is not… A tool to better target interventions and supports at the individual, small group, and whole school levels. A “life sentence” or a reason to track students. A systematic way to flag students that need to be further examined to determine what additional support are necessary. A diagnostic tool that provides details on the exact reason(s) why a student is at risk for not meeting an expected academic goal. Related to measures that are included in the state’s school and district accountability system (PPI), but is not itself an accountability measure. An accountability measure. Based on data and risk models that the Department will reexamine each year to continually improve the system. A stagnant system that will remain exactly the same in future years.

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference R OUND T ABLE D ISCUSSION D IGGING D EEPER W HICH A PPROACH IS M OST L IKE Y OURS ? 15

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference R EPORT O UT : W HAT A RE Y OUR Q UESTIONS ? W HAT H AVE Y OU L EARNED ? 16

2012 SLDS P-20W Best Practice Conference Contact information: Bill Hurwitch, Rob Curtin, Missy Cochenour, For more information on Early Warning Systems: SLDS Spotlight: Development and Use of Early Warning Systems: SLDS Webinar Presentation: Early Warning Systems: C ONTACTS & A DDITIONAL R ESOURCES 17