Boise State University Siân Mooney, Professor Boise State University EPSCoR Senior Lead, Economics and Policy Dept. Economics 10 th Annual Climate and Water Workshop Idaho Climate and Water Meeting: 2011 Water Year November 2, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows” - Bob Dylan (1965)

Research Team Members  Daniel Ames, Associate Professor (Geosciences, Idaho State University)  EPSCoR research funding starts September 2010  Kelly Cobourn, Assistant Professor (Economics, Boise State University)  EPSCoR start up (2009 and 2010)  New EPSCoR hire, Sept  Levan Elbakidze, Assistant Professor (Agricultural Economics, University of Idaho)  EPSCoR start up (2008 and 2009)  Tim Frasier, Assistant Professor (Geography, University of Idaho)  EPSCoR start up (2009, 2010 and 2011)  New EPSCoR hire, Sept 2010  Scott Lowe, Assistant Professor (Economics, Boise State University)  EPSCoR research funding starts September 2010  Wenchao Xu, Postdoctoral Fellow (Economics, Boise State University)  New hire, July 2010

Goals – Strategic Plan Integrate economic and bio-physical analyses to better understand and predict the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand and on economic activity within Idaho and the broader region  Assess Idaho water demand, especially agricultural irrigation demand and implications of climate change prediction scenarios  Determine the economic effects of changes in the timing and variability of water on factors such as land use, urban growth and water management within the Snake River Plain  Determine how changes in water availability affect conjunctive use of water and the relative value of surface water and groundwater rights.

Activities - Overview Lowe Collaborating on a project looking at the value of historical investment in water infrastructure (Dams). - 5 states (including Idaho) - Results – during drought years the counties with dams experienced a decrease in failed acreage of 4.41 percent during periods of drought relative to counties without dams as well as an increase in wheat acreage of greater than 2 percent Hansen, Z., G.D. Libecap and S. Lowe Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States. The Economics of Climate Change: Past and Present. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Activities - Overview Elbakidze  Supervising MS thesis - “Linked hydro-economic evaluation of prior appropriations based administrative curtailments in agricultural water: The case of ESRPA”  Collaboration with Rick Allen, Gary Johnson, Bryce Contor  GAMS model

Activities - Overview Frazier Supervising MS theses “Hazard Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Resilience Enhancement” “Economic Analysis of Post Disaster Community Redevelopment” “A Sea Level Rise Enhanced Storm Surge Methodology for Determining potential Electrical Substation Failure”

Activities - Overview Cobourn, Lowe, Flores, Mooney, Xu Remote sensing and economic models  Overarching goals  examine the isolated and interactive impact of climate change and the allocation of water rights on agricultural land-use change.  develop an empirical model to explain observed land-use change in the study region, as identified using remote-sensing data.  Isolate the role of climate change and water rights allocations in driving changes in the mix of agricultural production activities, and changes in the total amount of land in agricultural production.

Activities - Overview Examples of Proposals 1. NASA-ROSES (Lead: Cobourn, Flores, Lowe, Mooney ) A Coupled Econometric and Remote-Sensing Model of Land-Use Change in Response to Uncertain Water Availability and the Allocation of Water Rights 2. NSF – Water, Society and Climate (Coats, Elbakidze)* Toward Water Sustainability through decentralized Systems and Use Awareness 3. NSF – Water, Society and Climate (Lead: McNamara, Mooney, Lowe, Flores, Ryu)* The impact of watershed storage dynamics on water sustainability in a changing climate: The Boise River Basin Experiment 4. AFRI – NIFA (Lead: Rice, Mooney, Cobourn)* Cereal Production Systems in the Central United States: Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change 5. NSF - MAD CUAHSI HIS HydroDesktop Integration ( Ames )* 6. NSF Collaborative proposal: SI2-SSI: A sustainable framework to discover, create, share, connect, and integrate data and models in the hydrologic sciences community ( Ames )* *Does not reflect all participants

Future Plans Priorities for This Year  Advance modeling efforts  Integration with remote sensing/GIS data  Historical model of water infrastructure investment (and implications for future)  Water supply probability  Further develop research programs Will put groundwork in place for developing models that can be used to analyze a range of policy questions or future scenarios related to climate change, water, land use and hazard assessment

Future Plans  Integration activities  Further develop collaborations/working relationships  Data transfer – scale (temporal/spatial)  Continue dialogue with stakeholders and policy makers During model development team members will need to work closely with individuals providing data for external drivers (climate change, hydrologic change) and those providing management/process information. Closer working interactions and protocols developed for data transfer will help to build collaborative mixed discipline groups.  Advance hazard assessment research relevant to Idaho  Continue proposal activities