POWER PLAYERS: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND BEYOND VENEZUELA 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

POWER PLAYERS: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND BEYOND VENEZUELA 2012

DATANALISIS Chavez 43,8% Capriles 29.1% (September) CONSULTORES Chavez 56.5% Capriles 34.4 % (September) 16 September Consultores 21 Chavez 46.2% Capriles 48.2 (September) 6 th Poder Datos Chavez 47.17% Capriles 43.25% (September) THE “HORSERACE” CONFLICTING VIEWS

Acaraigua, Portuguesa (24 September) Health – uncertain Campaigning more reliance on media than in past significant number of public appearances Appeal charismatic manichaen HUGO CHÁVEZ FRÍAS

Unified opposition last chance to prevent transition to communalism Remnants of Punto Fijo fight for survival Rejection of class warfare Youth-vigor HENRIQUE CAPRILES RADONSKI

Diosdado Cabello R. (First Vice President) Elías Jaua (capital region) Nicolás Maduro (Center-West Region) Francisco Arias Cárdenas (West Region) Tareck El Aissami (Andean Region) ] Yelitze Santaella (East Region) Adán Chávez (South Llanos Region) Ramón Rodríguez Chacín (North Llanos Region) Rafael Gil Barrios (South East Region) PARTIDO SOCIALISTA UNIDA DE VENEZUELA (BEYOND CHAVEZ)

Operational Strategic Commands ARMED FORCES Henry de Jesús Rangel Silva (born in 1961) Venezuelan general and current minister of Defence (since January 2012). [1] [1]

National Guard - Juan Francisco Romero Figueroa Operational Command Gen. Wilmer Barrientos (Plan Republica) Bolivarian Militias Rule over Ranchos (Slums) manage drugs potential for violence if Chavez loses the election OTHER COMPONENTS OF THE MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT

Political Parties of Punto Fijo (Low Profile) Accion Democratica COPEI MAS Fifth Republic Opposition Primero Justicia Un Nuevo Tiempo Proyecto Venezuela Patria Para Todos Alianza Bravo Pueblo Podemos MESA DE UNIDAD DEMOCRATICA

Interest Groups FEDECAMARAS UNIONS CATHOLIC CHURCH Cardinal Jorge Urosa & President Chavez Government Institutions Ministerio para Comunas y Proteccion Social (Isis Ochoa Cañizales) PLAYERS: LESSER BUT IMPORTANT

100,000 barrels of oil to Cuba Cuban doctors to Venezuelan ranchos Cuban political officers in Venezuelan military Cuban planners in Venezuelan national bureaucracy VENECUBA??

China Development Bank has lent Venezuela $42.5 billion Brazil Political Consultants Odebrecht infrastructure construcion INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS Iran Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi (right) meets Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicols Maduro Moros